Here's everything you need to know about MLB odds, predictions and expert picks for Rangers vs Astros Game 1 and the rest of the MLB playoffs as the ALCS starts on Sunday.
Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Sunday's ALCS Game 1 between the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros?
Series Moneyline Corner
The Astros opened between -140 and -150 to win the ALCS, with the Rangers between +130 and +120, so I doubt we will play either side of the ALCS series price before Game 1. I would need -130 to back the Astros or +155 to fire on the Rangers series line before Game 1.
The Phillies opened as low as -148 (59.7% implied) to win the NLCS against the Diamondbacks but have since surpassed my projection and are sitting closer to -180 (64.3% implied) at some books. I wouldn't bet their series price beyond -160 before Game 1.
Rather than betting the Phillies to win the NLCS, I jumped ahead and bet them to win the World Series at +225 after clinching against the Braves. I project the Phillies as a slight favorite in a World Series matchup against the Astros. However, if you take just half of my projected NLCS probability (63.4%), you still get 31.2% and implied World Series odds of +215 for Philadelphia.
Bet the Phillies to win the World Series at +215 or better before the NLCS; my fair line is closer to +200.
Concerning the Arizona-Philadelphia NLCS matchup, I like the Phillies to win in six games or less and would bet Philadelphia -1.5 games on the series spread (projected +120, listed +120 at Caesars). I project the Phillies as favorites in six out of the seven games in the NLCS and only make them a slight underdog (+112) in Game 3.
That spread wager encompasses all four games started by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, an even number of home and road games, and a trio of games on consecutive days in Arizona, where the Phillies should have a substantial bullpen edge.
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Phillies -2.5 games (projected +295, listed +300) also caught my attention; however, you get fewer home games (2) than away games (3), and just three of the four Wheeler and Nola start when betting into that scenario.
I'd rather bet the Phillies to win in five games exactly or their exact 4-1 series result prop (projected +521, listed +520 at FanDuel) at a juicier price than the -2.5 games spread.
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MLB Odds, Predictions, Expert Picks for Rangers vs Astros Game 1
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -162 | 8.5 -122o / +100u | +128 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +134 | 8.5 -122o / +100u | -152 |
Jordan Montgomery vs. Justin Verlander (full projections here)
Texas had the option between Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi — who won Game 3 at home against Baltimore on Tuesday — to face the Astros in Game 1 and ultimately opted for the southpaw, who has permitted just a .676 OPS in 83 plate appearances against current Astros hitters, compared to a .971 OPS (across 166 PA) for Eovaldi.
Eovaldi has been a bit sharper this postseason with 15 strikeouts, 0 walks, and two runs allowed across 13 2/3 innings; Montgomery tossed seven shutout innings in his wild-card win over Tampa Bay but was much shakier in an 11-8 win over the Orioles (4 IP, 9 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 2 K) last Sunday.
Since the start of the 2021 season, the Astros have the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching (117 wrC+) while ranking fourth against righties (110 wrC+) over the same span. Typically, this Houston lineup projects better against lefties (122 wrC+, 3rd) than righties (107 wRC+, 6th), with a pair of left-handed hitters in Yordan Alvarez (career 158 wRC+ vs. lefties) and Kyle Tucker (131 wRC+ vs. lefties) ranking among the best same-sided left-handed hitters in baseball.
You're betting off attacking the Astros lineup right on right, neutralizing those splits, and hoping for the best against their left-handed sluggers.
Montgomery has fairly typical splits (career 3.20 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.10 vs. righties) while deploying his curveball against lefties and his changeup vs. righties. Alvarez and Tucker posted solid numbers against sinkers and curveballs this season — the primary offerings they'll see from Montgomery — and we're getting decent odds because of the left-on-left matchup. Tucker struggled with right-handed changeups, and both hitters struggled against splitters.
I'm interested in betting Tucker Over 1.5 Bases (+135) and Alvarez Over 1.5 Bases (+125), considering the improved prices we're getting on the pair in a left-on-left matchup, which has never proven to be an issue for either hitter. I'd also consider betting on Alvarez to walk (+155). He walked more times against Texas (7) this season than any other team and may get pitched around — or receive an intentional pass in the right situation — after his dominant ALDS performance (7-for-16, 7 R, 4 HR, 6 RBI).
Both Astros righties who excel against changeups (Mauricio Dubon and Yanier Diaz) struggle with sinkers; we'll stick with Tucker and Alvarez for prop purposes.
While I do view Justin Verlander (3.69 xERA, 4.56 xFIP, 14.8% K-BB%, 106 Stuff+, 107 Pitching+) as the better pitcher than Montgomery (4.04 xERA, 4.01 xFIP, 15.2% K-BB%, 94 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+), Verlander's numbers are down compared to recent seasons. His velocity is down nearly an entire tick, his strikeout minus walk rate has declined by 8.6% — barely sitting above league average (14.1%) at 14.8% — and his pitch modeling metrics, which improved after moving back to Houston from New York at the trade deadline, are still a tier below his 2022 Cy Young level (23.4% K-BB%, 116 Stuff+).
Verlander has limited current Rangers hitters to an impressive .614 OPS, with a 37:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio (24.1% K-BB%) in 137 plate appearances. However, after going a week between his last two starts, Verlander returned with spotty breaking ball command in the early innings against Minnesota — as he exhibited in Game 1 against Seattle in the 2022 playoffs (4 IP, 10 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 3 K). He allowed three first-inning base runners in both starts but pitched out of further trouble.
Houston has the pitching advantage in this series, but Texas can neutralize that advantage if its lineup can take a lot of pitches — as it has done all playoffs — and gets into the Houston bullpen early and often. After Evan Carter arrived in the majors on September 9th, the Rangers had the lowest chase rate and third-lowest swing rate among all teams. Whether their lineup is feeding off him or not, Carter's patient plate approach has been emblematic of the Rangers' offensive engine throughout this postseason.
Here are some deeper thoughts on #Rangers Evan Carter and the impressive start to his career.
-++ chase + barrel combination
-A fixable hole on 4S up-away
-55% fastballs will surely come downFull video below. Link within thread if you prefer to watch on YouTube. 🤙 pic.twitter.com/dBeTh6teBb
— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) October 6, 2023
Between the potential for spotty command after an additional seven days between starts and the Rangers' extra willingness to take pitches as a lineup, I like Verlander to record Over 1.5 walks (-105) in Game 1.
Additionally, I like Corey Seager to walk (+180) after recording 11 through his first five playoff games. He also has three walks in 23 career plate appearances against Verlander, a limited sample but a 13% walk rate, in line with Seager's career average and double Verlander's norm. Like Alvarez, Seager may get pitched around or receive an intentional pass with an open base, and I trust Verlander not to let Seager hurt him.
I project the Astros as -145 favorites for the first five innings (F5) and -135 favorites for the full game on Sunday night. The full game price aligns with my projection. However, I would bet Houston's F5 moneyline up to -133, at a two percent edge compared to my number.
Concerning the totals in this series, keep an eye on whether the home team decides to close the roof or not from game to game. Assuming the roof is open on Sunday, I set the total at 8.8 runs and don't see value on either side of the line. If they close the roof for Game 1, I may have to bet the Under.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks Today (Sunday, October 15)
Sides and Totals for Sunday, October 15
- Houston Astros F5 (-135, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -135)
- NLCS Series Spread: Philadelphia Phillies, -1.5 Games (+128, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +125)
- World Series: Philadelphia Phillies (+220, 2u) at Caesars (bet to +215)
Prop Bets for Sunday, October 15
- Yordan Alvarez, Over 0.5 Walks (+155, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Yordan Alvarez, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Corey Seager, Over 0.5 Walks (+185, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Kyle Tucker, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Justin Verlander, Over 1.5 Walks (-105, 0.1u) at BetMGM
