Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
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Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Wednesday's LDS matchups?
Series Moneyline Corner
The Rangers will meet the winners of the Minnesota-Houston series in the ALCS. Still, Game 1 won't start until Sunday, potentially cooling off the Rangers' red-hot bats after five consecutive playoff wins.
I expect the Twins to win the final two games and advance more than 25% of the time, and I would consider betting Minnesota on the series line before Game 4 at +325 or better. You can find the Twins as high as +350 at DraftKings (get $200 in bonus bets to use on this wager when you sign up, no DraftKings promo code required!). Still, I'm already riding their series line from before Game 1, an AL pennant ticket, and have a bet on Minnesota's moneyline for Game 4 — as you'll see below — for a total risk allocation of around 1.75 units. I wouldn't add more than an additional quarter-unit to that existing portfolio before a must-win game.
Concerning the NLDS matchups, I would typically want +138 (41.9% implied) or better to back Philadelphia at this stage; however, I stand to win substantially more on my Braves pennant and World Series futures (combined risk 1.5 to win 10u) than I would on my Phillies pennant future (0.25u to win 1.75u); and if you tailed both tickets, this may be our last opportunity to hedge against Atlanta futures at plus money; the only series I would personally consider hedging against the Braves in the playoffs.
Lastly, consider betting on Los Angeles to string together three consecutive wins at +455 or better. However, the line at FanDuel moved from +470 to +390 overnight, and the best available odds (+450 at DraftKings) are just out of range from my price target. Additionally, since we already bet the Dodgers at -154 before Games 1 and 2 and have just over two units allocated between those two wagers, I'm not looking to add substantially more to my Dodgers portfolio.
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 3
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 9 -104o / -118u | +102 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9 -104o / -118u | -120 |
Bryce Elder vs. Aaron Nola (full projections here)
As of writing, the Braves have yet to announce a starting pitcher, but I expect them to piggyback A.J. Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder in some order in Game 3.
Editor's note: The Braves announced on Wednesday morning that Elder would start.
Elder seemingly overachieved all season and has continually been mentioned as a negative regression candidate (3.81 ERA, 4.55 xERA, 4.50 xFIP, 80 Stuff+, 95 Pitching+). Pitching models are even less optimistic about Smith-Shawver (3.87 xERA, 5.71 xFIP, 88 Stuff+, 91 Pitching+).
Elder does keep the ball on the ground and in the yard (49.9% groundball rate, 0.91 HR/9), unlike Aaron Nola (career 1.40 HR/9; 1.49 in 2023). Still, in direct contrast to Elder, Nola was highly unlucky this season (4.46 ERA, 3.74 xERA, 3.63 xFIP, 101 Stuff+, 106 Pitching+) and provides the home team with the clear pitching advantage ahead of his fully rested bullpen.
Atlanta does have the offensive advantage for Game 3 — as it will against any team in the playoffs — especially now that its lineup is finally awake. The Braves led the league against both righties (123 wRC+) and lefties (131 wRC+) this season and carried its dominance against righties throughout the season, finishing with a 131 wRC+ (1st) in the second half and a 130 wRC+ (2nd) since the start of September.
They also have a ton of familiarity with Nola and have posted a .760 OPS against him across nearly 400 plate appearances. However, Nola has recorded a 22.3% strikeout minus walk rate or K-BB%, 1.5% better than his career mark. Ronald Acuña Jr. (9 XBH, 1.084 OPS in 56 PA) and Game 2 hero Austin Riley (10 xBH, 1.180 OPS in 57 PA) are responsible for most of that damage.
The Phillies ranked 10th (104 wRC+) and 11th (108 wRC+) against righties and lefties this year, respectively, but improved against southpaws in the second half (125 wRC+) and declined against righties, finishing 14th (99 wRC+) in September.
I don't see value on the side or the total at current prices. I need -116 to bet the Phillies at a break-even price, but the best available number is -120.
I set the total at 8.53 runs — with both teams likely deploying relievers aggressively in a pivotal Game 3 — and need -108 or better to play Under 9.
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Game 4
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | +108 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 8.5 +100o / -122u | -126 |
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Jose Urquidy vs. Joe Ryan (full projections here)
I noted the drastic discrepancy in home run rate between Monday's starters, Sonny Gray (career 0.84 HR/9; 0.39 in 2023) and Cristian Javier (1.33 HR/9; 1.39 in 2023), and naturally, Minnesota lost the home run battle 4-0 en route to a 9-1 loss. Gray allowed a home run on a breaking pitch for the second time this season.
After a 2-0 day on Monday, playoff teams who hit more home runs in a game have won those postseason games at an 82.7% clip (139-29, not including ties) since 2018.
And while Joe Ryan has proven himself a highly effective major league pitcher (3.57 xERA in 2022; 3.53 in 2023), his one flaw is a glaring home run issue (career 52% FB%, 1.50 HR/9; 49.9% and 1.78 in 2023). Ryan has allowed 52 home runs over the past two seasons, the ninth most in baseball, including 16 in his 11 second-half starts.
Due to the second-half home run barrage, Ryan's ERA ballooned from 3.70 in the first half to 6.09 over the remainder of the season. And even though Ryan's second-half indicators (23.6% K-BB%, 3.99 xFIP) align much more closely with his first-half metrics (24.7% K-BB%, 3.64 xFIP), he did see a seven-point dip in Stuff+ (from 102 to 95) and experience a slight velocity decrease:
Perhaps Ryan comes back throwing harder after last pitching on September 29, or maybe he comes back to the bump a bit rusty.
Either way, Ryan (3.53 xERA, 3.76 xFIP, 105 Pitching+) has superior underlying indicators compared to either of Houston's potential Game 3 bulk pitchers, starter José Urquidy (4.70 xERA, 5.45 xFIP, 104 Pitching+) and J.P. France (5.00 xERA, 4.80 xFIP, 102 Pitching+).
Both righties carry reverse splits (career 4.4 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.76 vs. righties for Urquidy and 4.09 xFIP vs. lefties, 5.48 vs. righties for France), and the pair may piggyback the first couple of turns through the order. However, Dusty Baker tends to have more freedom with his pitching moves based on feel than other playoff managers.
Of the pair, France (career 37.4% flyball rate, 1.25 HR/9) seems less likely to get dinged by the longball than Urquidy (career 44.6% flyball rate, 1.49 HR/9). Both pitchers faced the Twins in April but have relatively limited samples against these hitters.
It may not matter as much on Wednesday. The wind and weather could help salvage Ryan's and Urquidy's home run tendencies: 56 degrees at first pitch, with 6 mph winds blowing in from right-center field.
Given the weather, bet Under 8.5 to -121 or Under 8 to -103. Additionally, I set the Twins as -132 favorites with potentially their most significant pitching advantage of the series; bet Minnesota to force a Game 5, up to -125.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Game 3
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +106 | 9.5 -122o / +100u | -144 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -128 | 9.5 -122o / +100u | +122 |
Lance Lynn vs. Brandon Pfaadt (full projections here)
Sticking with our home run theme, both Lance Lynn (2.16 HR/9; 1.02 career) and Brandon Pfaadt (3.38 HR/9) have allowed a tremendous number of home runs this season (44 in 183 2/3 innings for Lynn, 22 in 96 innings for Pfaadt).
Pfaadt's season-long metrics (5.72 ERA, 4.58 xERA, 4.46 xFIP) all mask his improvements as a pitcher at the MLB level across multiple promotions and demotions.
In his first MLB stint — five starts in May — Pfaaft allowed 22 runs in 23 2/3 innings, alongside a 103 Stuff+, 100 Location+, and 102 Pitching+ rating. After some more seasoning — and another unsuccessful start on June 29 (six runs in two innings) — Pfaaft returned to the big leagues for good in late July, posting a respectable 4.22 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, and 19.1% K-BB% over his final 12 starts of the season, while showing improved pitch modeling metrics (103 Stuff+, 106 Location+) and ranking as a top 25 starting pitcher (among 173 qualified pitchers) over the second half of the season.
Pfaaft posted a still terrifying but much more manageable 1.66 HR/9 in the second half.
Over 21 starts with the White Sox this season, Lance Lynn posted a 6.47 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 18.5% K-BB%, 2.11 HR/9, 101 Pitching+. In 11 starts for the Dodgers after the trade deadline, Lynn posted a 4.36 ERA, 5.37 xFIP, 9.2% K-BB%, 2.25 HR/9, and 99 Pitching+. And he was even worse in September (5.34 ERA, 6.20 xFIP, 4.8% K-BB%, 2.20 HR/9, 94 Pitching+) than in August.
Given Lynn's recent struggles, I'd expect Dave Roberts to have his bullpen ready from the outset. I expect Ryan Pepiot (3.25 xERA, 3.99 xFIP, 103 Pitching+) — who I originally slated to start this game — will be ready for a bulk role behind Lynn. And even beyond Pepiot, the Dodgers have the vastly superior bullpen in my model, although the Diamondbacks' bullpen has been lights out thus far in the playoffs.
Los Angeles finished 3rd in reliever xFIP in the second half, compared to 23rd for Arizona. The bullpens ranked 5th and 15th in Pitching+ and 6th and 23rd, respectively, in Stuff+ over the same span.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks struggled against all types of pitching in the second half (91 wRC+ vs. righties, 25th; 86 wrC+ vs. lefties, 23rd), while the Dodgers' offense ranked much better against righties than lefties, particularly in the second half (123 wRC+ vs. RHP, 2nd; 113 wRC+ vs. LHP, 13th), with that gap growing since the start of September (5th vs. RHP, 24th vs. LHP).
I set the Dodgers as roughly -120 to -125 favorites for both halves of Wednesday's contest, making Arizona closer to the value side of the moneyline. I would consider betting the Diamondbacks at +135 or better relative to my projected line (+124). Additionally, I set the total around 9.6 runs and would bet an Under 10 to -107.
I might wait until Lynn exits to bet the Under.
Sides and Totals for Wednesday, October 11
- Divisional Series Price: Philadelphia Phillies (+125, 1u at Superbook) (bet to +120 ONLY IF you have Braves futures)
- Houston Astros / Minnesota Twins, Under 8.5 (-108, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -121 or 8, -102)
- Minnesota Twins F5 (-125, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -135)
- Minnesota Twins (-122, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -125)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-116, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -116)
- Philadelphia Phillies / Atlanta Braves, Under 9 (+110, 0.5u) at Bet365 (bet to -103)
Prop Bets for Wednesday, October 11
- Brandon Pfaadft, Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+105, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Bryce Elder, Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Bryce Elder, Under 11.5 Outs Recorded (+100, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Joe Ryan, Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Joe Ryan, Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-145, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Yordan Alvarez, Over 0.5 Walks (-135, 0.1u) at BetMGM
