The rough week continued yesterday as I missed on all three picks.
Let's hope for better things tonight, with high totals across the board in MLB.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Thursday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks and Predictions — 7/10
Guardians vs. White Sox NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Logan Allen vs. Jonathan Cannon
We've got a matchup between bad hitting and bad pitching in Chicago tonight, as two of the league's poorer offenses — both rank in the bottom-five in wRC+ — take on two struggling starters.
Typically, this tends to favor the offense overall, and the market has responded by setting an 8.5-run total for this game.
Both starters have overall ERAs above 4.00, with first-time through the order xFIP marks higher than their overall numbers. Cannon is even worse than his numbers appear at first glance, as he had a 1.98 ERA as a reliever before transitioning to starting duty.
On the plus side offensively, both teams are also on the stronger side of their platoon splits, which further helps the cause.
Angels vs. Rangers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jack Kochanowicz vs. Patrick Corbin
Most of the analysis on the Guardians/White Sox game also applies here, although we have slightly better offenses taking on even worse pitchers.
This also explains why the total in this one is a full run higher at 9.5, on top of the game being played in a stronger hitter's park and featuring better hitting conditions.
Patrick Corbin seems to have settled in as a below-average starter, a massive improvement over his performance over the past few seasons. Even so, his first time through the order xFIP is 4.47. Kochanowicz has a similar mark at 4.52, with his overall ERA in the mid-fives.
Another selling point is the off-market line at FanDuel. They have the YRFI at -113, while most other books are around -130. I wouldn't play it much past the FanDuel line, with ESPNBets' -115 the only other viable option.
