PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
After a lengthy injury-related absence that shelved him for four months, Brandon Woodruff is back atop the Brewers rotation, just in time for their playoff push. While the righty has been solid in his return, I’m looking to fade the seven-year veteran on his strikeout line today.
Despite making only six starts this season, Woodruff’s overall strikeout-related stats have been relatively in line with his performance from the last few seasons. This includes his 31.8% K%, and a 29.3% called-plus-swinging strike rate.
He’s under this line in four of his six starts, including two of three away from home. In fact, Woodruff is carrying the same stark home/road splits as he did last season (2023: 39.3% K% at home, 25.0% on the road; 34.8% at home in 2022, and 26.9% on the road).
Today, he’ll be facing the upstart Cubs at Wrigley Field. While yes, he did notch eight strikeouts in his first start this season at Wrigley, he’ll be facing a much different lineup today (four of those eight strikeouts were from players no longer on the Cubs active roster).
The Cubbies have been very consistently a below-average strikeout team since the start of summer. Over the last 30 days, the North-Siders are running a 20.1% K% versus righties, while also hitting above average (113 wRC+ and a .786 OPS).
Dating back to May, the Cubs have kept 22 of 25 right-handed starters under this line at home. Even in a tougher spot versus the capable Woodruff, I have the Cubs projected to strike out only 6.8 times against the Brewers starter. I’d play this line down to -145.
