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C.Paddack u15.5 Outs-120
BOS
@
MIN
1.2u
05/04 12:10 AM
Paddack under in 3/5 - one over vs a terrible White Sox lineup, and the other 5.1 IP and got shelled by BAL. Has been awful vs lefties (.935 OPS allowed), and doesn’t throw strikes (63% is 78/128 qualifiers). Red Sox have 5 lefties in the lineup today, and have the 12th lowest chase rate the L30. And they’re taking - 141 wRC+ and .868 OPS the L14 days vs righties. Twins pen is rested after an off day - no need to push Paddack.
52
S.Gray o5.5 Ks-140
CWS
@
STL
1.4u
05/04 12:15 AM
Over in 3/3 full starts, 32 K in 23.1 IP this season, averaging a K every 10 pitches. White Sox have been better in terms of Ks, but still at 23% over the L14 days vs righties. Gray with a solid history vs this lineup.
91
D.Jones o9.5 Pts-115
LAC
@
DAL
1.15u
05/04 1:30 AM
He is 27/33 when playing 26+ mins (15/17 with Luka + Kyrie) and seems pretty locked into that role due to his defensive prowess against PG (L4 games; 32, 27, 33, 30 mins). Has been capitalizing in transition and off spot up opportunities from Luka/Kyrie.
87
N.Powell o12.5 Pts-105
LAC
@DAL
1.05u
05/04 1:30 AM
Running this back. Almost everything that could have went wrong in Game 5 did: waited a few minutes for a whistle to check in during the 1Q, shot poorly (1-6 from three) and had his 4Q mins cut due to a blowout… and he still had 14.
Westbrook continues to look terrible, and the Coffey minutes are almost pointless. The Clippers need more scoring, with Harden and PG way too inconsistent - Powell should see 30 mins tonight, and I have him at 15 pts.
129
Pending
Civale 5+ Ks + Quantrill not to record a win-130
1.3u
Civale coming off a tough start vs NYY, but he’s looked good overall: 3.90 ERA/3.09 xERA. Generating more strikeouts thanks to a new sweeper he’s started throwing to righties this season. He gets 6 righties today (5 of them K prone). 5+ Ks in 4/5 starts.
I see this as a game where Quantrill is going to struggle to get through 5 IP, let alone putting the Rockies in position to win. The altitude should wreak havoc with this one, and I don’t trust a Rockies bullpen to hold the lead even if Cal somehow gets through 5 with the Rockies winning.
25
J.Hicks o4.5 Ks-115
SF
2
3
PHI
1.15u
End 3rd
I’m going to take a flier on Hicks after a dominant 9 K performance. He’s started to unleash his split-finger a lot more, including to righties (14 Ks on 30 PAs ending with the pitch, 47% whiff rate). PHI is tough to K, but they’ve struggled vs the split finger (bottom 10 in wRC per 100 pitches this and last season).
Overall, he’s over in 4/6 starts, so it’s not like we’re playing an inflated number here.
81
M.Morris o7.5 Pts+110
CLE
38
45
ORL
1u
2nd 3:11
Definitely worth a flier at plus money.
39
2-WAY PARLAY+122
1u
Suggs is over in 4/5 (the miss was in the knee injury game). Seemingly no Harris again tonight, Suggs will be needed to match Mitchell’s minutes. Should have no issue hitting this with 10-12 FGA.
Lively over in 3/5 this series, but notably saw an uptick in mins last game to combat Zubac/Clipper PnR game. I see that happening again tonight, and this is a solid spot against a Clippers team that’s struggled on the glass.
D.Lively o4.5 Rebs-186
LAC
@DAL
05/04 1:30 AM
J.Suggs o11.5 Pts-225
CLE
38
45
ORL
2nd 3:11
52
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 3-1-0 | 75% | 1.92u |
| Last 7 Days | 19-25-0 | 43% | -8.87u |
| Last 30 Days | 75-86-6 | 45% | -18.33u |
| All Time | 2075-1871-36 | 52% | 43.08u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 344-266-1 | 56% | 54.49u |
| NCAAB | 336-245-4 | 57% | 51.64u |
| NCAAF | 43-37-1 | 53% | 0.57u |
| MLB | 622-620-12 | 50% | -24.87u |
| NBA | 730-702-18 | 50% | -37.76u |
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