The Tampa Bay Rays host the Athletics on July 2, 2025. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-CA.
The Rays and Athletics will have to be ready for an early rubber match game. The Rays enter as -185 favorites with a 9.5-run total.
Find my MLB betting preview and Athletics vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Athletics vs Rays Prediction
- Athletics vs Rays pick: Over 9.5
My Athletics vs Rays best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Athletics vs Rays Odds
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -128 | 9.5 +100 / -122 | +158 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +106 | 9.5 +100 / -122 | -188 |
Athletics vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Ryan Pepiot (TBR) | Stat | RHP Mitch Spence (ATH) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.36/3.88 | ERA /xERA | 3.82/4.68 |
| 4.09/3.87 | FIP / xFIP | 3.97/4.04 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 3.1 | K-BB% | 2.6 |
| 38.2% | GB% | 42.9% |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 102 | Location+ | 101 |
Sean Paul’s Athletics vs Rays Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Rays are strongly in the mix for the AL East title, and one of the primary reasons is over-performers in their rotation.
Eventually, regression will hit some of the starters, and one of the main targets is Ryan Pepiot. The downturn began in Pepiot’s last outing, as the Orioles tagged him for four runs in just 1 2/3 innings.
Tampa Bay was smart to limit further damage by pulling Pepiot, but that won’t be the case in all of his starts.
Pepiot boasts a strong 3.37 ERA with a 3.88 xERA and 4.09 FIP. The regression likely comes via his 81.6% strand rate, which is improved from his 74.3% strand rate last year.
His 81.6% strand rate ranks 14th in MLB, behind some big names, such as Zack Wheeler, Tarik Skubal, Hunter Brown and Garrett Crochet.
Oddly, Pepiot is third on his team in strand rate, behind Drew Rasmussen, an elite ground-ball artist, and Zack Littell, who’s flirted with regression for months.
Here’s the thing about strand rate — elite strikeout pitchers often have elite strand rates due to the swing-and-miss. The others are ground-ballers, like Clay Holmes and Rasmussen.
Pitchers like Pepiot, who are more fly-ball pitchers, tend to have stats trending toward regression if they have a crazy high strand rate. I don’t think it'll favor Pepiot here.
Offensively, it doesn’t get much more elite than the Rays. They posted a 124 wRC+ in June, good for second, only behind the Tigers.
The best thing about facing a right-hander is that it allows Brandon Lowe to thrive. He’s one of Tampa Bay’s best bats, as he drilled seven homers in his last 27 games with a 175 wRC+
The Rays posted an MLB-leading .345 OBP in June, and when they get on base, they’re always a threat to steal. They led the league with 27 steals in June, and they lead baseball comfortably in steals this year.
Athletics Betting Preview
The Athletics have performed much better in this series than most would've expected. They snagged a 6-4 win in game one of the series and had another highly competitive outing in game two.
Mitch Spence is making just his sixth start of the season for the Athletics. He enters this outing with a 3.82 ERA, 4.68 xERA and 3.97 FIP. In Spence's last three starts, he allowed two or fewer runs in two of the three, but he allowed 7+ baserunners in each outing and didn't pitch past the fifth inning.
If he's filling the bases against this speedy Rays team, they'll make him pay.
Behind Spence is one of the worst bullpen units in the sport. The pen ranks 29th in the MLB with a 5.83 ERA while walking an MLB-worst 4.75 batters per nine.
Despite a hot start, the Athletics have struggled offensively in the last two weeks, ranking 26th in the MLB with an 82 wRC+.
The issue is that three of their top-of-the-order bats who mashed early on aren't hitting anymore. Those are Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom and Lawrence Butler, and their batted ball data makes me believe this is just a slump.
It's just an unfortunate time to slump, since all three are doing so at the same time.
Athletics vs Rays Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm targeting the over here. The Athletics' offense will get on track soon enough, and facing Pepiot, who is due for regression, could be the perfect fix.
Even if Pepiot tosses a strong outing, the Rays' bats could approach the 10-run marker on their own.
With Spence, who deals with constant traffic with an awful bullpen behind him, Tampa Bay could put up a very crooked number.
Pick: Over 9.5 (Play to 10)
Moneyline
I won't be betting on either side of the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also staying away from run line bets here.
Over/Under
I like the over.
