Reds vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - June 26, 2023

Reds at Orioles

11:05 pm • MASN

Cincinnati Reds

0-0

3 - 10

Baltimore Orioles

0-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 0-0	+1.5-167	o10-110	+110
Orioles 0-2	-1.5+137	u10-110	-130

Monday 11:05 p.m.

June 26, 2023

Oriole Park at Camden YardsBaltimore

CIN +120

BAL -130 (Live)

Pregame wager…..orioles -130

Over 10-116

0.86u

CIN +111

Over 10-110

$50.00

BAL -136

0.88u

Available at FanDuel. This market has been moving toward the Reds, and it may continue to do so, so there's potential merit in waiting to see if you can get a better number in a bit. I just disagree with the movement, personally, and am okay taking the risk on this potentially shifting a bit more. It's largely because I'm skeptical of the Reds' starter, Brandon Williamson. Williamson's results haven't been hideous thus far, but his expected ERA is 6.72 thanks to a gaudy 47.5% hard-hit rate allowed. The Orioles hit lefties well and are promoting prospect Jordan Westburg to join the club tonight, giving them another potential powerful right-handed bat. Cole Irvin on the other side certainly hasn't lit it up, but with a better strikeout rate and hard-hit rate, I've got more faith in him turning it around than Williamson. My model puts the Orioles' win odds above 60% versus the implied odds here of 57.6%.

CIN +122 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to +115

CIN +130

0.5u

Bet to +125

Over 9.5-105

0.5u

Bet to -110

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The Reds are just 19-45 (.297) after a road loss since last season -- 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.

Matt McLain has an OPS of .922 this season -- 14th best among hitters with at least 114 total PA's-- 96th Percentile. Cionel Perez has allowed an OPS of .885 (129 PAs) this season -- 10th worst among qualified RPs-- fourth Percentile.

Brandon Williamson has thrown inside pitches 45% of the time (266/587) this season -- 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 32% -- 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .128 (5 GB hits out of 39 GBs) against Brandon Williamson this season -- 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .245 -- 97th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 34% (170/508) against Cole Irvin since last season -- 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 43% -- fourth Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Orioles are 46-35 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Orioles' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Orioles' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	87-75	41-40	46-35	61-57	25-16
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Orioles	85-63-14	40-32-9	45-31-5	60-45-13	22-18-1
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	91-71	44-37	47-34	68-50	22-19
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 25th	SEA	W 3-2	+1.5 W	U 8	BAL +100
Jun 24th	SEA	W 6-4	-	O 9	BAL -119
Jun 23rd	SEA	L 1-13	+1.5 L	O 8.5	SEA -110
Jun 21st	@TB	L 2-7	+1.5 L	O 7.5	TB +120
Jun 20th	@TB	W 8-6	+1.5 W	O 7.5	BAL +144

Jorge Mateo
IF
Mateo is out with elbow
Out
Grayson Rodriguez
P
Rodriguez is out with back
Out
Tyler Wells
P
Wells is out with elbow
Out

Jeimer Candelario
IF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
Stuart Fairchild
OF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
Matt McLain
IF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
IF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Williamson, P	67	2	2	3
RF.Cruz, P	30	2	3	0
RE.Salazar, P	34	1	0	3
RJ. Wong, P	57	3	0	3

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Newman, 1B	1-5	1	0	0
2M.McLain, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3J.India, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
4E.De La Cruz, 3B	0-4	1	0	0
5S.Steer, LF	3-3	1	1	3
6N.Senzel, RF	0-3	0	0	0
7T.Stephenson, DH	1-4	0	0	0
8T.Friedl, CF	1-4	0	0	0
9C.Casali, C	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Irvin, P	45	3	3	1
LB.Zimmermann, P	41	3	2	2
RB.Baker, P	11	1	2	0
RM.Baumann, P	24	1	1	0
LC.Perez, P	17	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1A.Hays, DH	2-5	1	3
2A.Rutschman, C	2-4	0	2
3A.Santander, 1B	2-5	2	0
4A. Hicks, RF	0-2	1	0
5R.Urias, 3B	2-5	2	1
6C.Mullins, CF	2-3	0	1
7J.Westburg, 2B	1-4	1	1
8R.McKenna, LF	1-2	2	0
9J.Mateo, SS	0-2	1	0