Pirates vs. Cardinals Odds & Betting Predictions - September 2, 2023

Pirates at Cardinals

12:15 am • BSMW

Pittsburgh Pirates

0-0

4 - 2

St. Louis Cardinals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Hudson			4.98	6-3
M.Keller			4.21	13-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 0-0	-1.5+152	o8.5-114	-105
Cardinals 0-0	+1.5-184	u8.5-106	-115

Saturday 12:15 a.m.

September 02, 2023

Busch StadiumSt. Louis

STL -106

0.53u

Bet to -108

PIT -102

0.98u

Available at FanDuel. Mitch Keller has had a roller coaster year, but he's on a good swing recently. Over his past six starts, he has thrown more sinkers and cutters with fewer curves. It has helped him re-grow his strikeout rate back up to 27.1% with a 3.73 SIERA. The results have largely been solid, too, outside of one rough start against the Brewers. He's facing Dakota Hudson, who hasn't been bad but is letting up a 44.3% hard-hit rate since he got fully stretched out. The PIrates also hold the edge with their bullpen and defense, and it makes them 53.1% to win in my model, up from 50.5% implied.

Featured Insight
Cardinals Left Handed Hitters have struck out just 19% against RHP since last season -- fourth-lowest in MLB. PiratesRPs have a strikeout rate of just 21% vs left-handed batters since last season -- third-lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Pirates have won just 46% of their games that have been decided by one run or less over the last two weeks -- seventh-worst in MLB. Cardinals have won 57% of their games that have been decided by one run or less over the last two weeks -- fifth-best in MLB.

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BetMGM NRFI Friday: Phillies vs. Brewers
Billy Ward•
Sep 1, 2023 UTC

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The Pirates are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 5 or more runs this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .217.

31% of Paul Goldschmidt strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since last season -- sixth highest in MLB-- 95th Percentile. 51% of Mitch Keller's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since last season -- seventh highest among starting pitchers with at least 118 total IP-- 96th Percentile.

Alika Williams has a groundball rate of 57% over the last 30 days -- tied for eighth highest in MLB-- 96th Percentile. Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% against Dakota Hudson over the last 30 days -- sixth highest among qualified SPs-- 94th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Cardinals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Cardinals are 38-43 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Cardinals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 37 of Cardinals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cardinals	80-82	42-39	38-43	28-49	51-33
Pirates	88-74	43-38	45-36	29-34	59-39

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Cardinals	74-83-5	37-42-2	37-41-3	39-38	34-45-5
Pirates	77-81-4	40-38-3	37-43-1	31-30-2	46-50-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Cardinals	83-79	44-37	39-42	39-38	43-41
Pirates	76-86	39-42	37-44	35-28	41-57

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 30th	SD	W 5-4	+1.5 W	U 9	STL -110
Aug 29th	SD	W 6-5	+1.5 W	O 9	STL +120
Aug 28th	SD	L 1-4	+1.5 L	U 9.5	SD +165
Aug 27th	@PHI	L 0-3	+1.5 L	U 9	PHI +165
Aug 26th	@PHI	L 1-12	+1.5 L	O 8.5	PHI +190

Sonny Gray
P
Gray is out with arm
Out
Willson Contreras
C
Contreras is out with finger
Out
Lance Lynn
P
Lynn is out with knee
Out
Drew Rom
P
Rom is out with biceps
Out

Marco Gonzales
P
Gonzales is out with arm
Out
Ke'Bryan Hayes
IF
Hayes is out with back
Out
Johan Oviedo
P
Oviedo is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Endy Rodriguez
C
Rodriguez is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Keller, P	98	6	8	1
RC.Holderman, P	13	1	1	0
RC.Mlodzinski, P	22	1	2	0
RC.Selby, P	15	1	0	0
RD.Bednar, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Bae, 2B	1-5	0	0
1J.Bae, CF	1-5	0	0
2B.Reynolds, LF	1-4	0	1
3K.Hayes, 3B	1-5	0	0
4C.Joe, RF	0-3	0	0
4C.Joe, 1B	0-3	0	0
5J.Suwinski, CF	0-3	0	0
5M.Andujar, PH	0-1	0	0
5A.Williams, SS	0-0	0	0
6E.Rodriguez, DH	0-4	1	0
7L.Peguero, SS	2-3	2	0
7L.Peguero, 2B	2-3	2	0
8A.Rivas, 1B	1-3	0	1
8A.McCutchen, PH	0-1	1	1
8J.Palacios, RF	0-0	0	0
9J.Delay, C	0-3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Hudson, P	90	7	0	1
RR.Helsley, P	18	1	1	0
LJ.Romero, P	35	1.2	2	0
RD. VerHagen, P	4	0.1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1L.Nootbaar, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2P.Goldschmidt, 1B	0-4	0	0	1
3N.Gorman, DH	0-4	0	0	0
4N.Arenado, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
5W.Contreras, C	2-4	1	1	1
6T.O'Neill, LF	1-4	0	0	0
7T.Edman, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
8J.Walker, RF	1-4	0	0	0
9M.Winn, SS	1-3	1	0	0