Guardians vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - April 17, 2025

#BQ

🔑 Guardians ML +110 (DraftKings) 3u I’m cursed rn so tail cautiously. The Os have not impressed me this year. I think the Guards will be able to hit off Sugano. Bibee is a strikeout pitcher and the Os K a ton. 🔨time on Guards (for me)

Proj closer to -165. Classic ‘buy low’ spot..or should I say ‘Buy-bee low’ spot? (I’ll show myself out). His K% rate is down 10% from last season at 16% but I’m not seeing any major red flags (his expected K rate is popping at 26%) and 2 of his 3 starts were against the Royals so far (they have 7th lowest whiff rate). He’s not going to turn into Paul Skenes going forward but having exposure to 5 with him is decent value here.

Drown the dirty birds (-101 on PX)

Bet365

Bibee's K% down to 15.9, walk rate up to 11.1%. Sugano? 5.90 xERA, .305 xBA, 43.1% hard-hit rate. Both arms bleeding contact. Baltimore ranks 9th in runs (4.59/game), Guardians slug .379 with 20 HR in 17 games. Wind blowing out + warm Baltimore night? Boom time. Orioles hitting .237, but 35.6% of hits are for extra bases – 9th in MLB. Guardians low volume but 20 HR already, and both teams hit 1.18 HR/game. Sugano’s 1.57 WHIP is shaky, Bibee's .488 xSLG suggests he's getting barreled often. Neither pen ranked top 12 in ERA or WHIP. Bibee’s control issues = traffic. Sugano’s 15.6% whiff rate = no swing-and-miss. Last 8 matchups: 7 of last 8 sailed Over 8.5.

Thursday. Bet to -105