The Milwaukee Brewers host the Arizona Diamondbacks as the NL Wild Card Series gets underway Tuesday.
The big news surrounding this series broke Monday, when it was announced that Brandon Woodruff will be out for the Brewers. With that said, Corbin Burnes will try to set the tempo early on for Milwaukee.
Will the Brewers take care of business, or can the Diamondbacks play spoiler on the road in Game 1?
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Diamondbacks vs. Brewers prop betting pick and prediction.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Props
Arizona opting to start rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt in Game 1 is certainly a choice. My guess is that the D'backs are willing to roll the dice in Game 1 given that Burnes is on the other side, and are relying on having the pitching advantage in Games 2 and 3 behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.
Pfaadt has had a tumultuous rookie campaign. The right-hander went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP through 19 appearances. His underlying metrics are also terrible as he ranks in the 33rd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
Pfaadt typically struggles in the strikeout department and ranks in the 42nd percentile in Whiff% and 40th percentile in K%. That is likely to be an issue against a Brewers lineup that ranks ninth in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching since July 1.
Six of the nine hitters in Milwaukee's projected starting lineup possess a K% south of 23% this year. Additionally, each of the past four starting pitchers to face the Brewers have left the game with fewer than five strikeouts.
I like pretty much all the unders on Pfaadt, whom I think will be on an extremely short leash given that he's a rookie hurler making his playoff debut on the road. However, given all the aforementioned variables, I like his strikeout prop to go under the best.
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