Let's get into my Finland vs Sweden predictions and Olympics picks.
Finland and Sweden meet in a Scandinavian duel in the preliminary round for the 2026 Winter Olympics. Puck drop is set for 6:10 a.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be streamed live on Peacock.
Sweden is favored by 1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-106o / -118u). Sweden is a -193 favorite to win outright, while Finland is +160 to pull off the upset.
Finland vs. Sweden Odds, Pick
| Finland Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -167 | 5.5 -106o / -118u | +160 |
| Sweden Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 5.5 -106o / -118u | -193 |
- Finland vs. Sweden Spread: Finland +1.5 (-167), Sweden -1.5 (+140)
- Finland vs. Sweden Over/Under: 5.5 (-106o / -118u)
- Finland vs. Sweden Moneyline: Finland +160, Sweden -193
Finland vs. Sweden Preview
Finland
Finland is coming off the first upset loss of the Olympics, falling 4–1 to Slovakia on Wednesday. They actually came out strong and controlled much of the game early, and finished with a 40–25 shot advantage. But a bad Mikko Lehtonen turnover led to the first goal, and from there it felt like Finland was chasing.
The chances were there, the Finns just couldn’t cash in. A lot of that credit goes to Samuel Hlavaj, who was outstanding in net for Slovakia, turning away just about everything. Still, with this roster, it’s a result that has to sting.
It’s hard to call anything a lookahead spot in the Olympics, but if there was one for Finland, Sweden being up next would qualify. Finland is still a loaded group. Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho, and Roope Hintz headline the top six, with Mikael Granlund factoring in. With that talent, you have to like Finland’s chances to start burying its opportunities.
In net, Juuse Saros will be under the spotlight again when it comes to his play on the international stage. He gave up three goals on 24 shots against Slovakia, and his NHL numbers this season haven’t exactly quieted the noise.
He’s sitting on a -13.0 GSAx and .892 save percentage with Nashville this season, and before the break, he allowed 11 goals across his last two starts. That said, we’ve seen Saros carry teams before and he’s capable of flipping the script.
Sweden
Sweden had a somewhat nervy start to the Olympics, defeating Italy 5-2 on Wednesday. They outshot Italy 60-22 but found themselves tied until late in the second period.
Two quick goals—one at the end of the second, one early in the third—finally broke it open. Still, Italy hung around longer than many expected, especially considering they have no active NHL players on their roster.
There had been some pregame speculation about William Nylander’s injury status, but he suited up on the top line and scored the game-winning goal. Nylander, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Adrian Kempe give Sweden high-end NHL talent similar to Finland.
Its biggest advantage, though, comes on defense—with Victor Hedman, Rasmus Dahlin, Gustav Forsling, and Erik Karlsson—which should help contain Finland’s high-powered top-six.
In net, Filip Gustavsson started against Italy, but early indications suggest Jacob Markström will get the nod Friday. Nothing is official yet, but Markström has played 30 games for the Devils this season, posting a -10.9 GSAx and .882 save percentage.
Those numbers aren’t stellar, but his experience isn’t something that can be ignored. If he’s locked in, Sweden will have the edge in what should be a tight matchup.
Finland vs. Sweden Prediction
As I said, it’s tough to call anything a look-ahead spot in the Olympics, but given the rivalry between these two teams—and how both struggled in their openers—it begs the question.
Markström in net changes the dynamic for Sweden, as Gustavsson has been the stronger goalie this NHL season. Finland, meanwhile, should come out with plenty of urgency after dropping their first game.
In the end, Sweden’s talent, especially on the back end, gives them the edge, and I’m trusting Markström to show up if he gets the start.
On top of that, with so much attention on the offensive talent on both sides, a lot of people might be tempted by plus-money on the over, which makes the under appealing to me.
Tossing both Sweden and the under into a parlay gives you a fun +181 shot.
Pick: Sweden Moneyline (-180) | Under 5.5 (-125) | +181 Parlay
