March Madness Betting Trends: Value on N.C. State Spread in Sweet 16?

This year’s NCAA Tournament has been as chalky as any in recent memory as the 11-seed North Carolina State Wolfpack are the only double-digit seed to reach the Sweet 16. They’re the only true Cinderella team remaining as the next-lowest seed alive is the 6-seed Clemson Tigers.

However, while N.C. State is the only double-digit seed left, it’s a team that the 2-seed Marquette Eagles likely wanted no part of in the Sweet 16.

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The Wolfpack has been scalding hot since the calendar turned to March. They were 17-14 before the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament, with their only shot of making the Big Dance winning five games in five days to win the automatic bid.

They did just that, though, with Head coach Kevin Keatts saying making the tournament was nothing short of “a miracle.” Nonetheless, they’ve shown they belong, beating up on 6-seed Texas Tech and before holding off 14-seed Oakland for a 79-74 overtime win.

Despite the odds, there’s no reason to believe they can’t keep things rolling. After all, their run is eerily similar to UConn’s in 2011. The Huskies also won five games in five days to win their conference that year. They then went 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in the NCAA tournament on their way to cutting down the nets.

Meanwhile, even if the Wolfpack don’t win straight up, teams in similar positions have covered more often than that. Double-digit seeds against non-double-digit seeds are 13-5-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 dating back to 2012. They’ve been even more successful of late, going 8-3 ATS.

Marquette opened as 6.5-point favorites, and the line hasn’t budged midway through the week. N.C. State has won its last five games as an underdog. However, they’re only 17-18-1 ATS on the year while Marquette is 20-13-1.