March Madness Betting Trends: Duke Facing Uphill Battle in Sweet 16

We're used to watching Duke make deep runs in the NCAA Tournament. What we're not used to is them being the higher seed.

Friday’s game between the 4-seed Blue Devils and 1-seed Houston Cougars will be just the 15th time Duke is the lower seed in a game during the Big Dance. Unfortunately for Blue Devils fans, history isn’t on their side.

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Duke is 6-8 straight up and 8-6 against the spread in this spot, but their recent performance doesn’t instill much confidence. The Blue Devils have lost six consecutive games as the lower seed, including five straight ATS. Their last win came exactly 30 years ago in 1994.

This year’s tournament marks the fifth time Duke began March Madness at 30-1 or higher since seeding began in 1979. They’ve never reached the Elite Eight in any of those years. The Blue Devils were also eliminated in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and there’s never been an NCAA champion that flamed out that early in its conference tournament.

Meanwhile, the Houston Cougars have plenty of trends on their side. This is their seventh NCAA Tournament game in Texas. They’re 6-1 straight up all-time, although their lone was their most recent games in a 2022 Elite 8 showdown against the Villanova Wildcats.

Houston is also the fifth 1-seed to play a Sweet 16 game in it’s home state, joining the 2025 Illinois Fighting Illini, 2003 Texas Longhorns, 2002 Michigan State Spartans and 1983 St. John’s Red Storm. Three of those teams made the Final Four, with St. John’s the exception over 40 years ago.