Texas A&M vs Alabama Odds
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+2.5 -105 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-2.5 -115 | 45.5 -105o / -115u | -135 |
When looking for a contender to win the SEC West, all eyes should shift to College Station.
Alabama and Texas A&M enter Week 6 with 2-0 records in the toughest division in all of college football, so the winner of this game will be in the driver's seat for an SEC Championship appearance.
The road has been bumpy for both, as the Crimson Tide and Aggies have each taken a nonconference loss.
Alabama has recovered from a Week 2 loss against Texas, winning two conference games over the state of Mississippi by at least two scores.
Head coach Nick Saban experimented with backup quarterbacks in a typhoon against South Florida before landing on a starter for the rest of the season.
As the rushing attack improves, the Crimson Tide still must face questions in the passing game.
Texas A&M hit a bump in the road with a loss to Miami. The Aggies have weathered the storm with two conference victories despite the loss of starting quarterback Conner Weigman.
Head coach Jimbo Fisher is on the cusp of his most successful season in College Station, bringing in an offensive mastermind at the coordinator position, while the defense is the top-ranked unit nationally in Havoc.
Texas A&M has certainly closed the gap on Alabama, winning in this spot in 2021 before losing by four in Tuscaloosa last season. The winner of this game emerges not only as the team to beat for the SEC but could set itself up for a possible run to the College Football Playoff.
Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies have the nastiest defense in college football, generating the top Havoc ranking in coordinator DJ Durkin's 4-2-5 scheme.
Texas A&M sends a moderate amount of blitz, generating the second-highest number of tackles for loss. Not only do the Aggies play behind the line of scrimmage, but the defense is complemented with a top-10 rank in passes broken up.
Linebackers Edgerrin Cooper and Taurean York are in the top 25 of all Power 5 defenders in creating stops, a measurement of a complete failure by the offense.
While the defense showed out against Arkansas, the Aggies quickly ramped up their backup quarterback for the Southwest Classic.
Max Johnson filling in for Conner Weigman, gets Evan Stewart his fourth TD@AggieFootball | #GigEmpic.twitter.com/ld5QxfYtHR
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) September 30, 2023
Weigman, the previous starter, quickly moved from day-to-day to a season-ending foot injury, moving backup Max Johnson into the starting role.
The southpaw was already a seasoned veteran, attempting nearly 600 passes previously for Texas A&M and LSU. The quarterback did not disappoint against Arkansas, connecting on 28-of-33 passing attempts with two touchdowns.
Johnson targeted 10 different players and kept the Razorback defense on its heels, executing 48 plays in standard downs to just 19 in passing downs.
With no downgrade from Weigman to Johnson, skill-position players could keep Texas A&M in the top 25 for Quality Drives and Line Yards.
Thanks to Ainias Smith and Evan Stewart, the Aggies are most dangerous in passing downs with top-35 ranks in Success Rate and explosives.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Since taking a loss to Texas, the Crimson Tide have gotten back on track.
Jalen Milroe has taken over as the quarterback for the remainder of the season, serving as the team's leading rusher in a victory over Mississippi State. The third-year quarterback continues to be electric on the ground, averaging 4.4 yards after contact and generating 16 missed tackles for the season.
All of the questions for the Alabama offense surround the offensive line's blocking and Milroe in known passing downs.
HOUSE CALL! 🏠📞@JalenMilroe
📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/WkzCmVgPTR
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) October 1, 2023
Milroe has collected 10 big-time throws to just five turnover-worthy plays on the season, generating the highest average depth of target of his career at 13.1 yards. Nearly every mistake that generated a turnover-worthy play happened in the Texas game, leading the handicap to assess whether or not the Texas A&M front seven can produce like the Longhorns.
Milroe struggles in a crowded pocket, generating as many catastrophic plays with blitz than quality pass completions.
The Alabama defense continues to play as one of the best in the nation. The Crimson Tide are the top-ranked defensive unit in terms of coverage, per PFF.
Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry is quickly rising up individual boards with four forced incompletions, allowing only half of the targets thrown his way to be caught.
Opposite McKinstry is Terrion Arnold, who generates nearly double the forced incompletions. For Texas A&M to have success passing, it must come between the hash marks.
Texas A&M vs Alabama
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Alabama and Texas A&M match up statistically:
Alabama Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 13 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 55 | |
| Havoc | 111 | 1 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 10 | |
| Quality Drives | 49 | 36 | |
Texas A&M Offense vs. Alabama Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 23 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 37 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 51 | 47 |  |
| Quality Drives | 13 | 22 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 10 | 96 |
| PFF Coverage | 1 | 95 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 13 | 41 |
| Middle 8 | 2 | 38 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.9 (102) | 26.3 (56) |
| Rush Rate | 65.5% (15) | 47.5% (102) |
Texas A&M vs ALabama
Betting Prediction
The SEC West will be determined between two teams that field impeccable defenses.
Texas A&M specializes in Havoc, consistently playing behind the line of scrimmage and batting down passes in the air. Alabama has the best overall defense nationally against the pass, relegating opposing offenses to a one-dimensional attack.
The biggest handicap in this game is whether or not Milroe can break free from the pocket and whether or not the Aggies can produce a ground game.
There's every reason in the world to believe that Texas A&M can shut down scrambles and designed runs from Milroe. The Aggies have already faced Arkansas' KJ Jefferson and Auburn's Robby Ashford — two of the best RPO and scramble quarterbacks in the conference.
Neither Jefferson nor Ashford did anything on the ground against the Aggies. Instead, the best quarterback rusher against the Aggies through five games is ULM's Jiya Wright, who totaled 25 yards off designed runs.
Considering the Alabama offense ranks 111th in Havoc Allowed, good field position and quick scores could be in the mix for Texas A&M.
On the other side, there's every expectation that Alabama will shut down A&M's passing game. The Aggies will counter with plenty of success in running the ball, taking advantage of a Crimson Tide defense that's 94th in Stuff Rate and 56th in Line Yards.
A&M Running back Le'Veon Moss had plenty of success against Arkansas, posting two explosive runs while averaging 3.8 yards after contact on the season.
Texas A&M's average distance to go on third down was five yards against the Hogs — a scenario that would likely help the Aggies dominate the line of scrimmage on the way to scoring opportunities.
The Action Network projection makes this game a pick'em, giving value in the market to the home team.
Texas A&M has clear advantages on the defensive side of the ball, specifically in the Havoc category. While Alabama does have the best pass defense in college football, it's the Aggies' ground game that cashes tickets for investors.
