Tulane vs. UTSA Odds & Betting Predictions - October 30, 2025

I was only going to take this bet if it got back to +5.5, and it did. We make this a fair spread of 4.82, but I’ve been looking to fade this Tulane team for weeks now. Outside of their win over Duke, none of Tulane’s results have been impressive. A seven point win over ECU and Army, both at home is far from convincing. Four of Tulane’s six wins have come by one possession or less, and thanks to some generous turnover luck, they currently rank 2nd in our college football luck ratings. Simply put, this team has been extremely fortunate to sit at 6-1, and tonight presents a tough matchup for them. UTSA has had a disappointing season and is coming off a lopsided loss to North Texas. However, don’t get it twisted, this is still a good football team, especially on offense. The Roadrunners rank inside the top 50 nationally in offensive efficiency and top 20 in explosiveness. We bet on them multiple times last season, and they consistently delivered. UTSA’s strong run blocking will be important against a solid Tulane run defense, but the real edge lies in the passing game. Quarterback Owen McCown has been in this system for years and now faces a vulnerable Tulane secondary. The Green Wave rank just 125th in EPA/pass, allowing opponents to generate +0.20 EPA per dropback. That’s a bad recipe against a UTSA offense that throws on nearly 51% of plays (46th in the country). This is a pass first team going up against a secondary that ranks only 66th in coverage grade, despite facing one of the weakest passing offense schedules in the nation. Anytime Tulane’s defense has faced a competent passing attack, they’ve been exposed. On the flip side, Tulane’s offense simply isn’t very good. They rank 61st overall, but their efficiency numbers are ugly. They’re 102nd in EPA/rush and often find themselves in long third down scenarios. That’s not a sustainable way to move the chains. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff, the BYU transfer, hasn’t shown much either. We weren’t high on him at BYU, and he’s been underwhelming at Tulane as well. Moving from Darian Mensah to Retzlaff is a major downgrade, and it shows as Tulane ranks 119th in explosiveness and lacks the firepower to exploit UTSA’s defensive weaknesses. Defensively, UTSA can generate pressure but tends to give up the occasional big play. That’s good news against Tulane, one of the least explosive offenses in the country. UTSA’s defense should be able to force Tulane into long third downs, and Tulane’s 43.4% third down conversion rate is bound for regression. Lastly, it’s worth noting that UTSA is a completely different team at home, averaging an absurd 48.3 points per game compared to just 19.75 on the road. The Roadrunners are night and day depending on location. This will be Tulane’s first road game in over a month after two straight home games and a bye week. I’m ready to sell high on Tulane and buy low on UTSA. Give me UTSA +5.5 at home.

Traylor presser talked about ramped up attitude, intensity, physicality, and challenging his team. Home/road performance splits are drastic for UTSA. Tulane fortunate to have won last two games. Road runners save your season spot here. Tulane 119th in off. Explosiveness.

2.52% ev play to -103

Project 50.5; UTSA Rush D should stop a Tulane offense which produces no explosives. Tulane pass Rush top 10 and a much better tackle/havoc grade against Road Runners offense