The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, Iowa. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
Illinois is favored by 1.5 points on the spread, and the total is set at 143.5 points.
Here’s my Illinois vs. Iowa prediction and college basketball picks for January 11, 2026.
Illinois vs Iowa Prediction
My Pick: Under 143.5 (Play to 141)
My Illinois vs Iowa best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Illinois vs. Iowa Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 143.5 -110o / -110u | -102 |
Illinois vs Iowa College Basketball Betting Preview
Illinois Basketball
Illinois is a very sneaky top-10 team in KenPom. The Fighting Illini haven't had a tough matchup in nearly a month, which could make this one a challenge.
If you saw how Illinois' offense operated the past few years, I'm sure you — like me — assumed it would play fast. However, the Fighting Illini are 242nd in adjusted tempo. Last season, for example, Illinois was 17th.
I felt like Illinois had no choice but to play fast last season due to its defensive issues and a reliance on shooting. In 2025-26, Brad Underwood can dive back into his defensive DNA, as Illinois sits 17th in defensive efficiency. Teams are shooting just 45% on 2s against the Illini and 30% from deep.
Everything for the Illini defense happens in the half-court. Illinois ranks in the bottom five nationally in turnover rate, so it'll look to frustrate teams late in the shot clock. Having a defensive menace like Kylan Boswell doesn't hurt, either.
Illinois is shooting just about the same amount of 3s as last season, attempting them 47% of the time. It feels different, though, thanks to guards like Andrej Stojakovic and Boswell, who wants to get into the paint and dish to shooters or score for themselves.
A season ago, the Illini tried to use pick-and-rolls all game, and it led to some extreme variance.
Illinois is third nationally in offensive efficiency in 2025-26, and it shoots 59% on 2s and 34% from deep.
Iowa Basketball
Iowa took a very disappointing road loss to Minnesota in its last matchup.
I've gone back and forth all season on, "Is Iowa good or did Iowa play an easy non-conference schedule to boost its metrics?"
The truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Are the Hawkeyes the 20th-best team in the country, as KenPom says? Probably not. They played the 332nd-easiest non-conference schedule in the country, which helps. But fraudulent teams don't play Iowa State as close as Iowa did.
So, the Hawkeyes have to prove they can beat a top-15 caliber team, and here's their chance.
Going to a power-conference level didn't make Ben McCollum change his coaching philosophy. He still wants his teams to play slow, and Iowa sits 343rd in adjusted tempo. Also, he still wants his teams to be elite defensively, and Iowa ranks 18th in defensive efficiency.
Due to a lack of length, Iowa can give up some looks at the hoop, as it's allowing teams to shoot 52% on 2s. However, the key to McCollum's defense is forcing turnovers and making teams take tough 2s.
They force turnovers at a 23% clip, but Illinois turns it over just 14% of the time. That should work well to combat the Hawkeyes' strength.
Offensively, Iowa plays really, really slow, ranking 342nd in average offensive possession length. At times, the best offense for the Hawkeyes is just handing Bennett Stirtz the ball and hoping he creates some magic late in the clock.
Stirtz is the only reliable offensive weapon for McCollum, as he's leading the team with 18 points and five assists per game. Nobody else on the roster averages double-digit points.
The Hawkeyes will need more from versatile forward Alvaro Folgueiras, Cooper Koch and wing Isaia Howard to beat an elite team like Illinois.
Illinois vs. Iowa Betting Analysis
I have to go with the under here. With Illinois deciding to play slower this season and McCollum walking around on the other sideline, it's easy to see this one finishing in the high 60s.
I don't see the pace being fast enough to allow both squads to score in the 70s, so the under is the move.
The total is sitting at 143.5, and it feels like the oddsmakers believe the teams will catch fire from deep, which I don't see either team doing.
Of course, variance plays a role, but McCollum will look to run the Illini shooters off the line.
To counter, Underwood will likely feed his bigs and use their size advantage with Tomislav Ivisic and David Mirkovic. That'll slow things down.
My Pick: Under 144.5 (Play to 141)
