Welcome to another College Basketball Saturday.
The slate is electric, filled wall-to-wall with 144 conference games. As usual, our staff is locked in.
Below are our five favorite college basketball best bets and NCAAB predictions for Saturday, Jan. 17.
College Basketball Best Bets
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 2 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 6 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
 | Noon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Virginia vs. SMU Pick
By Jim Root
Virginia could really lean on SMU inside here.
The Cavs’ onslaught on the offensive glass is hard for anyone to withstand, but SMU’s 192nd national ranking in defensive rebounding rate spells major concern.
Butler racked up 16 second chances back in mid-November, while mid-major opponent Arkansas State racked up 21. Those are SMU’s two highest-ranked opponents in offensive rebound rate, so Virginia’s elite-level boarding is likely a huge issue.
The Ponies’ biggest advantage is their mid-range marksmanship.
The Mustangs rank 312th nationally in average 2-point attempt distance, per KenPom, but they are still top-50 in 2-point shooting. Boopie Miller and Jaron Pierre are masters of the pull-up arts, and that's critical against Virginia’s elite shot blocking around the rim.
Those two crucial advantages point me to the Over.
Pick: Over 157 or Better
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Iowa vs. Indiana Prediction
I project 147.6 points for this Big Ten battle, so I'd play the over at 144.5 or better, representing a three-point difference between my projections and the market.
Yes, Iowa will play at a plodding pace, and this game might be played almost entirely in the half-court.
But I expect an efficiency-based Over. That’s what tends to happen in Hawkeye games, as those are 11-6 to the Over this season.
Indiana plays exclusively drop coverage against ball screens. That’s a problem for two reasons.
First, Bennett Stirtz can carve up drop coverage better than almost any collegiate point guard.
Second, Indiana’s defense is weak on the interior between Reed Bailey and Sam Alexis. The Hoosiers have been bullied on the interior in Big Ten play (58% 2-point shooting allowed, 32 paint points per game allowed). Plus, their ball-screen coverage metrics have dropped significantly (.85 PPP allowed this season, .93 over the past four B10 games).
That’s not a good omen against Stirtz and Ben McCollum’s brilliant ball-screen-centric attack.
On the other end of the court, Iowa is the opposite of Indiana in ball-screen coverage, aggressively hedging and blitzing.
But that’s a good thing for Indiana, which has the requisite spacing and shot-making on the weak side to exploit over-rotating defenses.
The Hoosiers are still an elite offense, ranking first in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage (59%). They’re also elite at home, posting the nation’s fifth-highest home offensive rating (127.5).
From a mathematical and schematic perspective, I’m expecting points.
Pick: Over 144.5 or Better
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Arkansas vs. Georgia Pick
By Ky McKeon
Arkansas heads to Georgia on Saturday looking to stay atop the SEC standings.
The Razorbacks are one of the nation’s best agai teams (12-5), having covered four of their past five and 10 of their past 12. John Calipari’s team is rolling and hungry for more wins.
Georgia enters this game off a heartbreaking home loss in overtime to Ole Miss, and the 'Dogs are 1-6 against the spread in their past seven contests — a minor tailspin in an otherwise NCAA Tournament caliber season.
This game should be a track meet between two of the fastest teams in the country, and we could very well see the final score eclipse the 200-point mark when the final buzzer sounds.
The visiting Hogs sport one of the nation’s most potent offenses, an attack that ranks seventh in KenPom’s metrics and first in SEC play. It’s an up-and-down style that thrives in transition and is led by two phenomenal freshmen in Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas.
Per Synergy, Arkansas ranks 26th nationally in transition rate and 18th in transition points per possession (PPP).
The Hogs will try to run on Georgia every chance they get and then settle into an isolation-focused half-court offense that relies on its terrific guards to create off the bounce.
An elite shooting and finishing team, Arkansas ranks top 15 nationally in 3-point shooting and top 10 in at-the-rim shooting.
Georgia’s defense is stout inside thanks to monster center Somtochukwu Cyril, but the Dogs’ overall defense has fallen in SEC play. They’ve been routinely beaten on the glass, and the Razorbacks have the athletes to exploit that weakness.
But in transition, Georgia has been excellent, ranking seventh nationally in PPP allowed.
Georgia will be a willing participant in this track meet, as it ranks fifth nationally in offensive pace. And, like Arkansas, the Bulldogs have excellent guards to drive their offense. Smurf Millender, Blue Cain and Jeremiah Wilkinson have all been excellent this season.
Like the Hogs, Georgia is very good at finishing in the paint and at the rim, but it lacks the elite outside shooting Arkansas possesses. Millender and Wilkinson are microwaves and can heat up in a hurry, but the rest of the roster is inconsistent.
That makes the transition attack all the more important.
Per Synergy, Georgia ranks 12th nationally in transition rate and 20th in PPP, matching Arkansas’ attack bar for bar.
In the halfcourt, the 'Dogs will also rely on guard creation via handoffs and isolation, but they also hit the glass hard with Cyril and Dylan James leading the way.
Arkansas can be exposed on the defensive glass, and its perimeter has been very beatable on this end of the floor.
This should be a great game and fun to watch, with the amount of scoring sure to come.
Arkansas has impressed me more on the eye test and has the more talented, potent roster. The Hogs should be able to keep this one close and win one on the road.
Pick: Arkansas +1.5 or Better
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South Carolina vs. Auburn Prediction
By Evan Abrams
This game triggered one of our Action PRO Betting Systems:
In college basketball, teams that have struggled against the spread and are coming off a decisive loss often become undervalued by the market, particularly when facing large double-digit spreads.
After repeated poor performances, oddsmakers tend to overadjust, creating opportunities for motivated teams to outperform expectations even without winning outright.
The combination of public bias against losing teams and the natural tendency for effort and variance to stabilize makes these spots profitable over time.
By backing teams that appear to be playing poorly but are priced at their lowest point, this system identifies where perception has drifted too far from performance reality, leading to consistent value against inflated lines.
This is a good buy-low spot for South Carolina, which most recently lost at Arkansas by 34.
Auburn is a great offense, but its defense is so bad that the Tigers let most opponents hang around.
Pick: South Carolina +10 or Better
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BYU vs. Texas Tech Pick
By Ryan Minion
While Texas Tech's defense has been lackluster, I expect the offense to shred on Saturday in its home gym.
BYU is undoubtedly one of the best teams in the entire country, and it's certainly proved that by winning 13 consecutive games.
However, I expect this to be a tough test for BYU's defense.
Regression is inevitable in college basketball, and it wouldn't surprise me if it comes for the Cougars on Saturday.
Texas Tech enters this home conference game with a chip on its shoulder, and I feel comfortable playing the Red Raiders to hand BYU its second loss of the season.
Pick: Texas Tech ML
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