Boise State vs. Santa Clara Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 136.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Santa Clara Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 136.5 -110o / -110u | +130 |
The Boise State Broncos haven't lost a game since November 17 and have since notched noteworthy wins over Colorado, Texas A&M and Saint Louis.
Now they travel to Santa Clara to take on the other Broncos on Thursday.
Santa Clara has also had an impressive start to the season, with wins over UC Irvine and Iona. It's 11-3 going into this game, so a win over Boise State could help when the committee starts discussing this team in March.
Boise State comes into this game 9-2 on unders this season, while Santa Clara is a more even 7-6. However, Santa Clara plays at one of the fastest paces in all of college basketball, ranking 43rd in KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo metric.
Boise State ranks 213th in Adjusted Tempo, so even though it doesn't play a fast pace itself, the market has yet to catch up to it.
The angle in this game lies on the total.
Boise State Broncos
Boise State has an exceptional defense. It ranks 11th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom. It's also holding opponents to a paltry 25.9% from deep and 42.6% from inside the arc.
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Photo by CBB Analytics
There's a chance the Broncos' star player, Marcus Shaver Jr., is sidelined on Thursday, but over the last two games, Jace Whiting has been able to fill Shaver’s shoes in the backcourt.
Shaver would obviously be an added bonus — thanks to his 2.3 steals per game and intensity on the defensive end — but even without him, the Broncos' defense should be intact.
Defensively, Boise State is limiting opponents to 21.4% on offensive rebounds. This ranks fifth in the country, so essentially, Santa Clara will not have any second chances off the glass offensively.
Brandin Podziemski is the go-to option for Santa Clara. He's shooting 40.5% from outside the arc. Keshawn Justice and Carlos Stewart also compliment Podziemski with the deep ball, but Boise State does not allow many open 3s.
Yes, with Shaver out, the Boise defense will take a step back, but the rest of the team should still be able to defend the arc — as it has all season.
Brandin Podziemski’s pullup shooting is something to monitor. At 6’5, he’s a confident and fluid shooter with a quick release that will have to rely on his pullup shooting more on the NBA level to compensate for his lack of ideal burst and quick twitch athleticism pic.twitter.com/VKmxxB5qhJ
— Jam Hines (@jamontheboards) December 17, 2022
Oakland is not the best team in the NCAA, but it predominantly shoots 3s on offense. These Broncos held Oakland to 5-for-27 from outside the perimeter.
Santa Clara Broncos
Now, Santa Clara has more of a balanced attack on defense and offense, but it barely scores inside — it's shooting under 48% on 2-pointers.
Jaden Bediako is Santa Clara's most reliable post option at over 51%, but Boise State's roster has so much length, so he won't have many open looks.
On the defensive end, however, Santa Clara thrives in preventing offensive rebounds. It ranks 11th at 22.2%, so don't look for either team to pull down second opportunities with ease.
Santa Clara may get a few extra 3s to fall, but Boise has the depth to fill in for Shaver if he misses this game.
Lastly, Boise State does have a tendency to get over-aggressive, as do most defensive-minded teams. It will foul, but Santa Clara ranks in the middle of the NCAA in getting to the line offensively.
Boise State vs. Santa Clara Betting Pick
Boise State should control the tempo of this game, even with Shaver out. Whiting has been great as a fill-in.
Santa Clara’s offense is also so one-sided, with only 3-pointers. Also, outside of Bediako, Boise State does not have too many interior concerns defensively.
Take the under in this game from 136.5 (-110) to 134 (-110). The Boise State under trend should continue.
