Boise State vs. Nevada Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 132.5 -106o / -114u | +116 |
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 132.5 -106o / -114u | -140 |
After an impressive 10-3 start to its season, Boise State will travel to Reno on Wednesday night to open up conference play against the Nevada Wolf Pack. It will be the first conference game of the season for the Wolf Pack (10-3), as well.
The Wolf Pack will be looking to do something they weren't able to do in three different attempts last season: beat Boise State. Last year, the Broncos topped the Wolf Pack at home, on the road and in the conference tournament.
This year's first test likely won't be any easier for the Wolf Pack, with Boise currently ranked as one of the best teams in the country in terms of defense and rebounding.
Also, the Broncos hold an all-time record of 8-3 in Mountain West openers.
Does this Nevada team have what it takes to prevent a four-game losing streak to Boise State?
Boise State Broncos
The strongest attribute for the Broncos this season has been their defense. They'll need that to continue against a Nevada team that averages 70.9 points per game.
Boise State ranks 12th in the nation in scoring defense, holding teams to just 58.7 points per game. The Broncos are also 14th in field goal defense and 18th when it comes to defending on the perimeter.
And while they do rank in the 95th percentile in defensive rebounds per game, they could face some difficulty against Nevada, which is one of the top-25 teams in the country when it comes to average height.
At the offensive end, the Broncos have left a lot to be desired, averaging just 69 points per game and posting an effective field goal percentage of just 48.6%. Most of Boise State's shots attempts come from the paint or 3-point range above the break.
Nevada has been elite in terms of defending the interior, holding teams to just 29.8% in the paint. However, the Wolf Pack have been even worse as of late when it comes to defending 3s above the break, allowing opposing teams to hit at 39.5%.
If Boise State is going to get its fourth win in a row against Nevada, it'll need to be consistent from deep.
Nevada Wolf Pack
The Wolf Pack have been consistent at both ends of the floor. Nevada ranks in the top 20 when it comes to limiting turnovers and the top 50 when it comes to defending 2-pointers.
However, there's one major concern I have with Nevada when it comes to its offense.
The Wolf Pack are third in the nation when it comes to point distribution from free throws. Nevada averages 23.2 free-throw attempts per game and 18 points off of free throws.
I don't expect the Wolf Pack to find themselves at the charity stripe as frequently against Boise State.
The Broncos average just 15.8 fouls per game. They've limited opponents to just 15.9 free-throw attempts per contest and just 11 points per game off of free throws.
Without the consistent scoring from the charity stripe, I think the Nevada offense could take a serious blow. Not to mention, other than the free-throw line, the majority of Nevada's shots have come via mid-range 2s.
Boise State has limited teams to just 28.6% on mid-range 2s this season. The Broncos have been even better in their last five games, ranking in the 90th percentile when it comes to defending those shots.
Boise State vs. Nevada Betting Pick
I can see why Nevada is favored in this game — it's faced a tougher schedule and it plays its best basketball at home. Meanwhile, Boise has struggled on the road, specifically when it comes to turnovers.
However, I think Boise is the better all-around team.
I think the Broncos are contenders to win the Mountain West, even with how strong this year's competition is. I think Boise State keeps Nevada off the free-throw line in this one and does enough to move to 9-3 in Mountain West openers.
Take any points you can get with the Broncos, as I expect this to be a close, low-scoring game. But I would feel comfortable backing Boise as high as -110 on the ML.
Pick: Boise +2 (Play to -110 ML) |
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