Throughout the World Series, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and each game as the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks face off in the Fall Classic.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on the 2023 World Series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Let's talk series price and World Series prop bets before digging into Game 4 between the Diamondbacks and Rangers. Here are my best World Series bets today.
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Series Moneyline Corner
Here are my updated projections for the 2023 World Series:
The TexasRangers reopened between -300 (75% implied) and -330 (76.4% implied) in the futures market before Game 4, with a 2-1 lead in the series.
However, Max Scherzer and Adolis Garcia left Game 3 with injuries and their status for the remainder of the World Series is in doubt. I would have projected the Rangers as 72% favorites if both are healthy, but make them just 69% if both players miss the remainder of the series.
As a result, Arizona is the value side of the series price; I would need +245 (29% implied) or better to bet the Diamondbacks if Garcia and Scherzer are taken off the Rangers' roster but +265 (26% implied) or higher if they remain with the team.
I previously sprinkled Arizona to win in both six games (at +520) and seven games (at +480) before Game 3, and I'd still look to bet them to win in six games (+750 at Caesars) and seven games (+500 at Caesars) as alternatives to their series moneyline before Game 4:
Additionally, you can bet Arizona on the series spread (+1.5 games, +118 at Caesars); I'd want +104 or better compared to my projected line. There's also a more minor edge relative to the -1.5 games spread.
I continue to have difficulty finding any value in the total games markets for the series:
We'll check back on all of these prop markets before Game 5.
For now, assuming Adolis Garcia is out, you can bet Arizona on the series line (to +245), play their exact series result props (win 4-2 and win 4-3), and/or bet the D-Backs on the series spread (+1.5 games).
As you'll see below, I also like Arizona in Game 4, so try not to over-allocate risk to their futures relative to the single-game edge; there's no need to double and triple down on what amounts to the same opinion but at different odds.
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Game 4
Andrew Heaney vs. Joe Mantiply (full projections here)
Both managers will deploy their bullpens heavily in Game 4, an advantage for Arizona, which successfully deployed the same strategy in Game 4 of the NLCS against the Phillies. Texas also used its long relievers throughout Games 1 and 2 and had to deploy potential Game 4 starter Jon Gray in Game 3 instead after Scherzer left with back tightness.
As a result, the Rangers will likely turn to a combination of Andrew Heaney, who faced three batters in Game 1, and Dane Dunning, who pitched in both Games 1 and 2, to turn over the Diamondbacks' order before ceding innings to their higher-leverage relievers. Unless Texas falls behind by a large margin, I'd expect Bruce Bochy to pitch everyone except Gray and Martin Perez.
The Diamondbacks will lead with southpaw Joe Mantiply to neutralize Corey Seager and Evan Carter, but he's capable of stretching out over two innings and facing Nathaniel Lowe before exiting if he's pitching well.
Arizona used eight arms in their bullpen game victory over the Phillies. However, they only carried 12 pitchers for the World Series, as opposed to 13 for the NLCS. They left Slade Cecconi off the roster in favor of Jace Peterson, who pinch-hit late in their Game 2 blowout win. Arizona should have all hands on deck for Game 4, and you can expect them to feed Seager and Carter lefties in at least three plate appearances.
While the Rangers have several relievers to neutralize Corbin Carroll, their back-end relievers project much better against lefties than righties — something I highlighted in my series preview before Game 1 as a potential issue in Game 4:
Heaney has shown typical splits throughout his career (3.56 xFIP vs. lefties, 4.19 vs. righties), which are more reliable than his reverse 2023 sample. And that's a bit more encouraging for a predominantly right-handed Diamondbacks offense.
Bruce Bochy must also decide how to re-make his lineup if Garcia is out for Game 4. He slotted the powerful righty between Seager and Carter in Game 3 and may slot DH Mitch Garver there as a replacement with Arizona's anticipated lefty usage. Bochy must also choose among Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski, or potential roster replacement and 2023 first-round pick Wyatt Langford (1.154 OPS in the minors) in the outfield.
Jankowski (+6 Defensive Runs Saved in 622 innings) is a substantially better defender than Grossman (-9 in 523 innings), a switch-hitter who crushes lefties (career 126 wRC+). If you start Grossman in this series, you probably start him in Game 4 and pull him for Jankowski, either when the D-backs are out of lefties or if you need a defensive replacement.
Garcia's injury on Monday seemed severe — like a potential turning point in this series, even though Texas held on for the win. Heaney also hasn't thrown more than 22 pitches in the past week or more than 56 pitches in the past month, so Texas' bullpen could be heavily taxed for Game 5, a more significant issue if the series is tied 2-2 than sitting on a 3-1 lead with two home games in hand. If Scherzer isn't going to pitch in Game 7, they should pull him off the playoff roster tomorrow and get another arm on their staff for Game 4.
I like Heaney to record under 9.5 outs. He's not stretched out — I doubt he has more than 50-60 pitches in him — after tossing just 32 pitches in the past 24 days. Bochy should pull Heaney — and go to his righties — after facing Carroll a second time. He'd need to be perfect to hit the Over on the outs prop by that point.
I project the Diamondbacks as -115 favorites (53.5% implied) and set the Game 4 total at 8.73 runs. Bet Arizona on the moneyline at -106 (51.5% implied) or better, and play the Under down to 9.5 (-119) or 9 (-101). The biggest threat to the Over is Texas falling behind early and forcing Heaney to take one for the team to keep the bullpen fresh for Game 5. Otherwise, both teams should mix and match pitchers and rarely give any hitter a second look at the same arm.
Sides and Totals for Diamondbacks-Rangers Game 4
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+100, 1u) at FanDuel (bet to -109)
- Under 9.5 (-115, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -119 or 9, -101)
- World Series Handicap: Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 Games (+118, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +104)
- World Series Price: Arizona Diamondbacks (+250, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to +245)
Prop Bets for World Series Game 4
- Andrew Heaney, Under 9.5 Outs Recorded (-115, 0.1u) at Caesars (bet to -120)
- Andrew Heaney, Under 3.5 Hits Allowed (-165, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -175)
