Throughout the World Series, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and each game as the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks face off in the Fall Classic.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on the 2023 World Series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Let's talk series price and World Series prop bets before digging into Game 3 between the Diamondbacks and Rangers. Here are my best MLB bets today.
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Series Moneyline Corner
Here are my updated projections for the 2023 World Series:
The Texas Rangers are between -130 (56.5% implied) and -142 (58.7% implied) in the futures market before Game 3. As a result, Arizona is closer to the value side of the series price, but I would typically need at least +122 (45% implied) or better to bet the Diamondbacks at this stage; the best price I could find as of Sunday night was +120 (Caesars).
However, there are more fun ways to bet Arizona in the series prop markets at a comparable edge but at much juicier odds:
I bet Arizona both to win in six games, or 4-2 (+520) at FanDuel, and in seven games, or 4-3 (+480) at Caesars. At other books, you'll find those props listed between +450 to +475.
Unless you're interested in laying significant juice on Arizona not to get swept (-714 at Caesars) or +2.5 games at a tiny edge (0.32% compared to a -735 projection), I'd avoid the series spread market:
Lastly, I had difficulty finding any value in the total game markets for the series.
We'll check back on all of these prop markets before Game 4.
For now, bet Arizona's exact result props (win 4-2 and 4-3) at any price higher than my projected lines (+488 and +456, respectively); otherwise, target Arizona's series price above +117, at least a 1% buffer compared to my number.
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Game 3
Max Scherzer vs. Brandon Pfaaft (full projections here)
Full-season stats paint an inaccurate picture of the current form of the Game 3 starters, future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer — who began his career with the Diamondbacks — and rising rookie Brandon Pfaaft.
After working through early struggles at the MLB level, Pfaaft made a leap over 12 second-half starts (4.22 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, and 19.1% K-BB%) and has carried that form into the playoffs (2.70 ERA, 2.74 xFIP, 28.8% K-BB%), with his best working coming at home.
Pfaadt is an ace in the making, with a workhorse build (6-foot-4, 220 pounds), wicked stuff, and quality innings in massive games early in his career — including a win in the 2022 PCL Championship game after leading the minor leagues in strikeouts (218) across 29 starts.
Still, while Pfaaft dominated the Phillies and Brewers — posting a called-strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) between 33-41% in those three outings — he generated just three whiffs on 42 pitches (13% CSW%) against a much more patient Dodgers offense. Notably, Texas (30.9% O-Swing%) has chased less frequently than any other team in the playoffs — or any other team in the league, period, since Evan Carter arrived in the majors.
I like Pfaaft to record more than 1.5 props/walks">walks (+110) in Game 3. Among the 16 strikeouts he recorded in the NLCS against Philadelphia, just two pitches were entirely in the strike zone, while two were 50/50 called strikes at the bottom of the zone. Twelve were chased high (four-seamers), wide (sweepers), or below (changeups and sinkers) the strike zone.
Conversely, Merrill Kelly recorded true chases on just three of his nine strikeouts in Game 2. Texas seems likely to work deep counts, drive up Pfaadt's pitch count, and get into Arizona's bullpen.
While I'd prefer to bet the Over on Pfaaft's walks prop at plus money, I would also lean to the Under on both his strikeouts 4.5 (-125) and Under 13.5 Outs Recorded (-115) props. It's much more likely than not that he doesn't face Corey Seager and Evan Carter a third time.
Max Scherzer is a bit more difficult to handicap, mainly since Texas used multiple long relievers — Martin Perez, Andrew Heaney, and Dane Dunning — for the second consecutive day in Game 2.
Scherzer's health was a significant question mark before Game 3 of the ALCS after he missed substantial time with a shoulder strain. He averaged 94.1 mph on his fastball in Game 3 and 94.3 mph in Game 7 — higher than his season average (93.7 mph) — alongside a CSW% of 35% and 23% in those two outings (30.2% career).
Still, through two playoff starts, we haven't seen Scherzer pitch into the fifth inning, and he wore down by the fourth inning in Game 3 of the ALCS.
Aside from Texas' Game 2 pitching usage, Scherzer Under 14.5 Outs (-125) would be enticing again. Still, I'm not sure who they will start in Game 4 if they have to go to converted starters like Andrew Heaney and Jon Gray again in Game 3. Both teams might play a straight-up bullpen game on Tuesday.
Scherzer has impressively limited these Arizona hitters to a .566 OPS in 111 career plate appearances (27.9% K-BB%) — another red flag against betting his Unders for Game 3.
Pfaadt faced Texas on the road in his major league debut (4 2/3 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 3 K, 4 HR allowed), and Josh Jung (x2), Jonah Heim, and Leody Tavares went yard. Seager, Carter, and Mitch Garver didn't play in that game, but Pfaaft is also a better pitcher now than he was then.
Torey Lovullo has opted for his best defensive lineup in the World Series, deploying NLCS hero Alek Thomas over Emmanuel Rivera. While Carroll (-4 Defensive Runs Saved or DRS in Center Field, +1 in Right Field; 0 in Left Field) is the fastest player in baseball, Thomas (+5 DRS) is the better defender — his reads off the bat are second to none.
With Thomas in center, Corbin Carroll moving to a corner, Evan Longoria (+2 in 300 innings) shifting from DH to third base — which is a wash with Rivera (+2 in 470 innings) and Tommy Pham (+2) shifting to bat-only duties — Arizona is playing a strong defensive lineup while adding one more left-handed stick to the batting order:
Ultimately, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the total for Game 3.
I projected the Diamondbacks as -105 favorites (51.2% implied) and the Rangers as +105 underdogs (48.8% implied). I would need at least +103 (49.2% implied) to bet Arizona or +114 (46.8% implied) to bet Texas for Game 3.
Additionally, I set the total at 8.9 runs and would wait for the total to climb to 9.5 (-112) or better before betting the Under. The total has moved a half run from overnight until the first pitch for each of the first two games in this series. We'll see if that trend continues.
Sides and Totals for Diamondbacks-Rangers Game 3
- World Series Exact Result: Arizona Wins 4-2 (+520, 0.25u) at FanDuel
- World Series Exact Result: Arizona Wins 4-3 (+480, 0.25u) at Caesars
Prop Bets for World Series Game 3
- Brandon Pfaadft, Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+110, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to +100)
- Corey Seager, Over 0.5 Walks (+125, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +110)
- Max Scherzer, Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (-150, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to -155)
- Max Scherzer, Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-118, 0.1u) at FanDuel (bet to -125)
