I've got two player props I love for Game 1 of the Twins-Astros ALDS series that I simply had to share with my loyal Action Network readers.
Twins vs. Astros Game 1 Props
Entering the season, Bailey Ober was a decent-looking, young righty. He demonstrated reasonable control and a decent Whiff Rate at every level. It was expected he'd develop into a league-average starter.
However, Ober’s swing-and-miss stuff has exploded this season, and the market never caught up to this development.
His 13.9% Swinging-Strike Rate ranks in the 84th percentile of pitchers in 2023, but that mark actually undersells how many bats he's missing.
Ober continuously improved upon his swing-and-miss rates as the season progressed. Each month was better than the last.
As his Swinging-Strike rate improved, so did his strikeout rate.
His final four regular-season starts were immense. He induced 22 Whiffs against the Rockies, 16 against the A’s, 12 against the Reds and 13 against the White Sox. Among starting pitchers, only Spencer Strider, Blake Snell and Freddy Peralta had a higher Swinging-Strike Rate than Ober’s 15.4% mark in the second half.
Ober’s transformed into an elite strikeout pitcher, with three pitches inducing a Swinging-Strike Rate north of 15% (four-seam, changeup, slider).
Yet, the market isn't valuing Ober as such.
I know starting pitchers have a quick hook in the playoffs, and I know the Astros are the most formidable and disciplined lineup in the league. But I genuinely think the market is lagging behind Ober’s newfound Whiff potential, so I think he’s undervalued.
If history is any indication, Ober is certainly undervalued. He cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in 18 of his 26 starts this season.
Surprisingly, he eclipsed four Ks in 10 of his 12 road starts. His strikeout rate jumps four points to 27.4% when away from Minneapolis. He struck out 75 batters across 68 road innings this year.
BallParkPal’s Starting Pitcher Simulations project Ober for 5.4 strikeouts in Game 1 of the ALDS. I think that line better reflects his strikeout potential, and it might still undervalue him, considering his wild home-road splits.
Pick: Ober 4.5 Ks (-130 at DraftKings)
Yeah, this is a chalky pick. But this game screams Yordan Dinger.
Alvarez lagged a bit in August post-injury but exploded in September, when he slashed .294/.441/.620 for a 1.060 OPS across 118 PAs.
And Alvarez is cruising entering the playoffs. Over his final 10 regular-season games, he recorded a 54% hard-hit rate and a 22-degree average launch angle, resulting in a 20% barrel rate. He pulled about 40% of his batted balls.
Pulling hard-hit balls in the air is a recipe for success, and Yordan is cooking with fire. He smacked three doubles and three homers during that final 10-game stretch. He came up huge when his team needed him most, providing vital at-bats as Houston came from behind to clinch the AL West.
I think he carries that momentum into Game 1, primarily because of the matchup.
Ober is a right-handed fastball-changeup pitcher, and Alvarez crushes right-handed pitching — 13 of his 24 doubles and 25 of his 31 homers came against righties. He smacked an extra-base hit every eight plate appearances against the side, generating a .336 ISO.
Alvarez also crushes changeups. He slugged .711 off changeups in the regular season, which actually undersells how hard he hit offspeed stuff, as he posted a .788 expected slugging on those pitches.
Meanwhile, Ober enters the 2023 postseason with a 4.52 ERA over his final 12 regular-season starts.
The problem? The Long Ball.
Ober allowed at least one in 11 of those 12 starts. He allowed two dingers thrice.
Alvarez has three hits in five tries off Ober. Considering the matchup and his recent form, I’m betting Alvarez will smoke another Ober changeup in a huge Game 1. Hopefully, that batted ball goes over the wall, but I’ll take a deep double, too.
For what it’s worth, Alvarez is 6-for-12 with three doubles and two homers in his past three ALDS Game 1s. All three were in Houston, and all three ended in an Astros win.
