Minnesota will look for another dominant performance from Pablo Lopez (3.66 ERA, 194 IP) on Sunday as it hopes to avoid an 0-2 series deficit. Lopez dominated the Jays in the Wild Card Round as he allowed just five hits and one earned run over 5 and 2/3 innings.
Framber Valdez will start for Houston and is looking to follow up a dominant 2022 postseason. Valdez pitched to a 1.44 ERA across 25 innings last postseason and was a key reason why the Astros won the World Series. While he did not hold that ridiculous level this regular season, a 3.66 ERA in 198 IP was still good for 3.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for Twins vs. Astros ALDS Game 2 below.
Twins vs. Astros Game 2 Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +114 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
Minnesota Twins
Pablo Lopez pitched to a 3.36 ERA across 83 innings after the All-Star break. He effectively earned Game 1 of the Wild Card Round with a stellar season and did not disappoint.
Lopez's stuff rated considerably better than we saw a year ago this season, with a Stuff+ mark of 99. His pinpoint command was reflected by a Location+ of 107 and a Walk Rate of only 6%. His 3.00 xERA comes with solid underlying numbers all across the board.
Opponents have a Hard-hit Rate of just 28% on breaking pitches this season and a Hard-hit Rate of 37% against his fastballs. He also owns a 29.2% Strikeout Rate to go alongside those marks. Those three stats combine to show a lot of balance and illustrate the various areas in which Lopez has found success.
Minnesota's bullpen has remained a notable strength to start this postseason, and its top arms were dominant versus Toronto. Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Jhoan Duran and Louie Varland are all well rested entering Sunday's matchup and provide Rocco Baldelli some excellent matchup options.
The Twins hit to a wRC+ of 100 against left-handed pitching this season. They did fare better in the second half, however, with a mark of 131 since August 1.
Houston Astros
Framber Valdez struggled down the stretch as he pitched to an ERA of 4.66 since the All-Star break and allowed nine earned runs in 9 and 2/3 innings in his final two outings.
Even still, Valdez still owned an xFIP of 3.82 and struck out 8.25 batters per nine innings since August 1. Valdez's Stuff+ rating dipped slightly from 108 to 106 this season, and he owned a Location+ mark of 98. His ability to generate grounders took a hit this season, as his Ground Ball Rate dropped from 66.5% to 54.2%.
Houston's relievers ranked sixth with a 3.56 ERA this season and remain a key strength again entering this year's postseason run. Aside from Bryan Abreu, who threw 29 pitches Saturday, the Astros bullpen is also well rested heading into Sunday's contest.
The Astros hit to a wRC+ of 107 against right-handed pitching this season and came alive playing at full health down the stretch with a wRC+ of 130 in the final 30 days.
Twins vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
Both Lopez and Valdez could offer quality starts in this matchup and will lead into quality bullpens.
Lopez was in excellent form down the stretch prior to his crucial performance versus Toronto and offers a tremendous profile. Valdez's underlying form was a little more debatable, but he is still a player I want to back in this spot against the Twins offense, even if they did enter the series in better form against lefties.
Fading the Astros' proven lineup after another big postseason performance is not fun, but with Lopez's recent form, I am willing to trust high quality pitching to overcome elite batters.
I still have faith in Valdez to deliver a strong performance more often than the -105 price would suggest on there to be under eight runs scored.
