Twins vs. Astros Game 1 Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | +124 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -146 |
Twins vs. Astros odds opened with Houston as a significant home favorite in Game 1 of the ALDS on Saturday afternoon.
Minnesota won its first playoff series since 2002 with its two-game sweep of Toronto on Tuesday and Wednesday. The formula was clear for Minnesota in those two wins — ride elite pitching and hit some timely home runs — as the Twins outscored the Blue Jays 5-1 in two games.
Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray won't be available for Game 1 of this series to start against the defending World Series champion Houston Astros, but Minnesota's starting pitching depth goes beyond those two ace-level pitchers.
Bailey Ober vs. Justin Verlander is certainly an advantage for Houston if you go by pitching pedigree and big-game experience, but the gap between the two starters isn't nearly as big as you'd think based on 2023 data. Ober has a deceptive nature about his delivery, his fastball command is elite and he fills up the zone. The Twins also have options behind Ober to make this game closer to a coin flip than the market is suggesting with this line.
Here are our odds and pick for Twins vs. Astros Game 1.
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota has dealt with a lot of injuries and lineup shuffling throughout the season, but might have its best lineup ready for this ALDS clash.
Royce Lewis returned from injury in a big way in the Wild Card Round with two homers in his first two career playoff at-bats. Lewis posted a 155 wRC+ in the middle of the order in the regular season. Fellow rookie Edouard Julien has elite patience and power at the top of the lineup with a 130 OPS+ this season.
Those two have added some real depth to go along with veteran bats Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa. All three battled injuries and inconsistency at various points of this season, but Kepler and Polanco especially were playing their best baseball offensively headed into the playoffs.
Matt Wallner is another rookie breakout candidate who didn't play much in the first half but had an 11% walk rate and 18.8% barrel rate this season.
The Twins will strike out a lot offensively, but they'll also take their walks and hit for power. That kind of approach absolutely plays in the playoffs because it's so hard to scratch together singles against elite pitching — just ask the Blue Jays how that worked for them.
Minnesota has six players in the presumed lineup for Game 1 with a projected wRC+ of 110 or better. That doesn't even count Julien, who has surpassed expectations as a rookie. Michael A. Taylor is a defense-first center fielder who helps improve the Twins' otherwise middling defensive metrics.
The Twins' decision to start Ober over Joe Ryan is an interesting one because Ryan was the presumed starter for Game 3 if the Twins needed a third game in the last series. The switch to Ober tells me that the Twins — a very smart organization for pitching development — see something in the matchup that they like for Ober against this Houston lineup.
Ober doesn't have great stuff but he has elite command and pitched to a 3.63 xERA with an elite curveball and a 100 Pitching+ in the last 30 days. Home run suppression has been an issue for Ober, though, and that should raise a red flag if you're betting the Twins here.
Houston Astros
Verlander had a 23.4 percent K-BB% in 2022, which was eighth-best in MLB among qualified starters. He won the Cy Young with a 1.75 ERA and a 2.66 xERA as he dominated and eventually signed with the Mets to a multi-year contract. Verlander had a 3.15 ERA with the Mets in the first half and a 3.31 in the second half with the Astros.
The underlying skills loss for Verlander was more pronounced overall, though. His FIP last season was 2.49 and jumped to 3.85 this year. You can always expect Verlander to marginally outperform his underlying xERA and FIP numbers, but the strikeout rates have dipped too.
His K-BB% dropped from eighth best to 81st among pitchers with at least 80 innings at 14.8%.
Like the Twins, the Astros' lineup wasn't at full strength for most of the season. Jose Altuve missed nearly half of the season and Yordan Alvarez missed more than a quarter of the year. The fully-healthy Astros lineup is still one of the four best in all of baseball.
Twins vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Twins have a lot of power hitting lefties and thus struggled against southpaws relatively this season. Houston doesn't have a single lefty they'd comfortably use in high or medium leverage in this series outside of Game 2 starter Framber Valdez. That's a key for me not just in this game, but in this series matchup.
Minnesota has the best reliever in the series too with Jhoan Duran's ability to throw more than one inning if needed. Converted starters Louie Varland, Chris Paddack and Kenta Maeda can help bridge the gap to Griffin Jax and Duran at the back-end of the bullpen.
Verlander is marginally better than Ober at this point in their careers, mostly because of homers, but the bullpen advantage for Minnesota has me betting them at +135 or better in Game 1 and +130 or better for the series.
