The Rangers and Rays both spent large portions of the regular season in first place of their respective divisions. However, they both landed in the top wild-card spots in the American League and will get the playoffs started as the first game of the day on Tuesday. Jordan Montgomery will get the start for the Rangers and he will be opposed by Tyler Glasnow.
Texas will need a quality outing from Montgomery to steal a victory on the road. Evan Carter and Marcus Semien may provide some run support for him.
Rangers vs. Rays Game 1 Props
Since coming over from the Cardinals at the trade deadline, Jordan Montgomery has been the Rangers' best starting pitcher. In 11 starts in a Rangers uniform, Montgomery went 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 2.1 WAR, matching his total from 21 starts with the Cardinals. Montgomery has stepped up with the Rangers dealing with injuries to Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi, along with Eovaldi struggling of late.
Last week, we backed Montgomery's outs recorded line at 16.5 against the Mariners. He tossed six innings, allowed just one run on a solo home run, and struck out five. He has now lasted six innings in each of his last four games and in seven of his last 10 starts. With this line, we just need him to go 5 and 1/3 innings, which he has done in 13 of his last 15 starts.
Now, there is some risk to backing starting pitchers in the postseason, as managers may be quicker to use their bullpens with games of increased magnitude. However, the Rangers' bullpen finished the regular season ranked 24th with a 4.77 ERA, including blowing the lead in Montgomery's last start. If Montgomery is pitching well, manager Bruce Bochy will likely give him the opportunity to pitch into the sixth inning.
Montgomery is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in five starts at Tropicana Field. He is familiar with the Rays after spending the first five and a half years of his big league career with the Yankees. Additionally, Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena are a combined 7-for-36 (.194) against him.
If Montgomery can shut them down again at the top of the Rays' lineup, it will go a long way toward helping him shut down their offense as a whole and go deep into this game.
Pick: Jordan Montgomery Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+110 at DraftKings)
Typically, the line hits + runs + runs batted in combo is at 1.5 for most players. Every now and then, someone like Ronald Acuna Jr. or Freddie Freeman will be at 2.5 if they are playing at Coors Field or have a favorable matchup. However, Evan Carter is one of a handful of Rangers set at 0.5 for today's game.
Part of that is because of the tough matchup against Tyler Glasnow, who posted a 3.53 ERA and struck out 162 in 120 innings. Carter may also get up only three times as he has typically batted ninth, which mostly results from the depth of the Rangers' lineup.
Carter was a top-50 prospect at the time of his MLB debut on Sept. 8. In 23 games, Carter hit .306 with five home runs, 12 runs batted in and a 1.058 OPS. Had Carter done that for the course of the full season, he would have challenged Michael Harris Jr. as the best ninth hitter in the major leagues.
He has hit this line in 18 of the 23 games he played, but I like the variety of ways he can cash it. With one hit, Carter can hit this line quick and easy. He is hitting .365 with all of his home runs against right-handed pitching. However, he can also get a RBI on either a sacrifice fly or groundout. Additionally, he can walk and score a run with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager batting behind him.
He did just that in last Saturday's game, when he went 0-for-2 but walked twice and scored a run.
Pick: Evan Carter Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-135 at DraftKings)
While the rookie Carter has not faced Glasnow, Marcus Semien is 4-for-9 (.444) with a double, triple, two home runs and five runs batted in against him. His average was consistent against left- and right-handers, but he hit 26 of his 29 home runs this season against right-handers. He is also a proven day-game hitter who batted .311 in day games this season.
Semien played in 162 games for the third time in the last five years. Just as impressive as his durability is the fact that he hit this line at a 67% rate during the regular season. He averaged 2.5 hits + runs + runs batted in over his last 15 games.
Semien may do us a favor and cash his line and Carter's if he drives him in with a hit. However, getting on base will give him a good opportunity to score as well. Semien usually bats in front of Corey Seager, who had 96 runs batted in this season in just 119 games. Nathaniel Lowe (former Ray) and Adolis Garcia (107) each had over 80 runs batted in as well.
Of course, Semien might drive himself in with a home run and pick up three hits + runs + runs batted in. Semien was last in the postseason in 2020 with the Athletics. He hit two home runs and drove in four runs in during that postseason run and has hit .371 in nine career playoff games.
If Semien rises to the occasion in the playoffs once again, he should cash this line with ease.
Pick: Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-110 at DraftKings)
