Game 1 of this series was tightly contested as, surprisingly, the Texas Rangers bullpen came up big and held a narrow lead. However, Game 2 could have a very different look to it, and we can capitalize on that in a few different ways.
So, let's dive into our top player props for ALDS Game 2 between the Rangers and Orioles.
Rangers vs. Orioles Game 2 Props
Jordan Montgomery Over 14.5 Outs -140
Jordan Montgomery came out and set the tone for the Rangers' postseason with a dominant performance in Game 1 against the Tampa Bay Rays. Montgomery threw seven shutout innings, and while that type of performance may not need to be replicated today, Texas will need length out of him.
In their victory yesterday, the Rangers used five pitchers to get the job done. Three of them were their best relievers: Will Smith, Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc. While they are all still available today, the Rangers will not want to dip into their bullpen as early as they did yesterday.
Fortunately for them, Montgomery has been reliable when it comes to going at least five innings in 2023 as he has pitched at least five innings in 88 percent of his starts this season.
That hit rate gives us whopping implied odds of -733 that he will go over again, and consequently, this is line value we cannot pass up.
Pick: Montgomery Over 14.5 Outs -140 (bet365)
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI -135
Marcus Semien has been the sparkplug at the top of the Rangers' order, and he's proven to be dangerous in a variety of ways. Semien is coming off his best regular season since he came to Texas as he hit .276 with 29 homers and 100 RBI.
That type of run production is not typical of a leadoff hitter, but Semien is not your typical table setter. His ability to not only get on base but cash in with others on base has made him profitable with this type of prop.
Semien has gone over this total in 66 percent of games played this season, which gives us implied odds of -194.
If the Rangers get something cooking in this matchup, you can count on Semien being right in the middle of it.
Pick: Semien Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI -135 (DraftKings)
Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 RBI +225
The Orioles lineup was held in check in Game 1 yesterday, but we know the Baltimore bats are too potent not to break out eventually, and Adley Rutschman is the man who could lead the offensive output.
Rutschman had a tremendous regular season, and Baltimore's tone has changed since his arrival. The numbers also show that he's due for some positive regression this postseason.
Rutchman's xBA is 13 points higher than his actual batting average, which stems from him constantly putting the ball in play. He drove in 92 runs this season and will add to that total this postseason.
On top of the impending positive regression, Rutschman faces a lefty in Montgomery this afternoon. This sets up as a favorable matchup as the switch-hitting catcher excelled against lefties this season, hitting .304 with a .895 OPS against them.
Lastly, I mentioned Rutschman's RBI total earlier because there is significant line value here. Adley drove in a run in 37 percent of games played this season, which gives us implied odds of +170.
As a result, Rutschman is a strong value play to get the Orioles on the board at +225.
Pick: Rutschman Over 0.5 RBI +225 (bet365)
