Rangers vs. Mariners Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 7.5 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -176 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-148 | 7.5 -102 / -120 | -1.5 +146 |
The Rangers will look to bounce-back Saturday after consecutive losses to open their pivotal series versus the Mariners. Missing the playoffs entirely or winning the division are still reasonable possibilities for both teams prior to Game 161.
Seattle will feel good about its chances Saturday with likely AL Cy Young runner up Luis Castillo on the mound. Oddsmakers are respecting Castillo's dominant 2.81 ERA at home, and have the Mariners priced as -150 in this matchup against opener Andrew Heaney (4.28 ERA, 143 IP).
Texas Rangers
Injuries to a number of key arms is a valid excuse, but if the Rangers manage to collapse on a playoff spot altogether the pitching staff will be heavily at fault. Over the last 30 days they own a fourth worst ERA of 5.47 as a team. Should the Rangers lose Saturday they would likely be looking at Dane Dunning on short rest taking on George Kirby in Game 162.
That is not a situation the Rangers want to get in, so it will be all hands on deck looking to find a way Saturday.
Andrew Heaney will lead things off and Texas would love to see him go at least 2-3 innings, as the bullpen has been shaky of late and already was forced to six innings Friday. Heaney last pitched more than three innings on September 10th, but is obviously capable of being used as a more traditional starter. However he did throw one inning in Thursday's series opener.
Heaney has pitched to an xERA of 4.58 this season, and an xFIP of 4.53. In his last five outings (5 IP) he owns an xFIP of 5.29 and an ERA of 7.71. In his last ten outings, he owns an xFIP of 4.65 and ERA of 4.71. He owns a Stuff+ of 100 this season with a Location+ of 100.
Texas has been the fourth most potent offence in the league versus right-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ of 114 and .458 slug-rate. Over the last 30 days it owns a wRC+ of 114, with a league leading 38.4% hard-hit rate.
Seattle Mariners
Luis Castillo's dominant 3.20 ERA. across 194 and 1/3 innings will likely have him finishing second in the AL Cy Young race. He has tailed off a little in the season's back half with an ERA of 3.62, which is more in line with his xERA of 3.74. He has pitched to an xFIP of 3.76 this season.
Across five starts (30 IP) in September Castillo owns an ERA of 4.20, with a WHIP up at 1.37. His xFIP sits at 4.38 in those outings, with a strong 10.20 K/9. He owns a Stuff+ rating of 99 this season, with a Location+ of 103.
Texas has been the fourth most effective team in the league versus four-seamers by weighted pitch value, and the second most effective versus the slider. That will create a strength on strength dynamic versus Castillo who features those pitches 66% of the time.
The Mariners have hit to a wRC+ of 99 over the last 30 days, and have struck out 25.8% of the time.
Rangers vs. Mariners
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Rangers lineup still deserves to be viewed as one of the toughest matchups in the league for any right-handed pitcher. Betting on their offense to bounce-back in this crucial spot is reasonable, even if they are taking on a guy who will finish runner-up in the Cy Young race. Castillo has also not been outright dominant recently, and has posted a modest ERA in September with average underlying results.
Andrew Heaney opening up for a middling bullpen is not an overly appealing pitching situation at all if you're a Rangers fan looking at this matchup.
At their opening price of -135 the Mariners made a solid. At the current numbers betting this game to go over 7.5 runs at -105 is my favorite play.
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