Here's everything you need to know about updated Rangers vsDiamondbacks odds with expert pick and prediction for this World Series Game 5 showdown from three of Action Network MLB writers.
The Rangers lead the series 3-1 with a potential close out game in Arizona that net the franchise's first ever title.. Let's preview the game and check out our staff's picks and predictions for World Series Game 5. Find our best MLB bets today below.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -114o / -106u | -108 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8.5 -114o / -106u | -108 |
Zac Gallen Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130)
I don’t really see a scenario where Gallen pitches into the sixth inning unless he’s completely shutting down this Rangers lineup. He threw 99 pitches, gave up four hits, three runs, walked four guys, but was able to make it to the five inning mark before Arizona turned it over to the bullpen.
Gallen has been pretty bad during these playoffs, but because he was a Cy Young candidate Torey Lovullo has been giving him a long leash. In six playoff starts he has a 5.27 ERA and 5.233 xFIP, so his underlying metrics are exactly what his actual metrics are. The other problem has been his control, he has a 4.28 BB/9 rate in these playoffs mainly because he isn’t getting the swings and misses that he’s used to.
In the game one start against Texas, of the 99 pitches that Gallen threw only 42 of them were in the zone. He kept trying to throw is changeup down and away to righties and down and in to lefties, but the Rangers just weren’t swinging at it. He only produced 11 swings and misses, which is a problem.
Because he’s not getting the swings and misses during these playoffs, Gallen only has a 5.93 K/9 rate when during the regular season he was at 9.43.
This is also not a situation where Gallen can be afforded a long leash in a do or die game. The moment that he gets into trouble, I don’t think Lovullo is going to mess around and allow this game to get out of hand.
So, I have a hard time seeing Gallen getting to sixth inning, so I like Under 15.5 Pitching outs at -130.
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F5 under 4.5 -105
By Doug Ziefel
We have ourselves a rematch of Game 1 as Nathan Eovaldi will face off against Zac Gallen. However, this time, the Arizona Diamondbacks season is on the line, and things should fare much better for these two starters this time.
Eovaldi had it all working early in Game 1 as he was spotting his fastball and tumbling his splitter below the zone. That combo led to him racking up eight strikeouts in just over four innings of work.
While Arizona made adjustments after the first time through the order, Eovaldi is due for positive regression against this lineup. In 63 combined at-bats, the Diamondbacks have hit .302 but have done so with an average exit velocity of 89.5 mph and an average launch angle of 7.6 degrees.
That low quality of contact will play in Eovaldi's favor, and that is shown by Arizona's xBA of .246. The same goes for Zac Gallen against the Texas Rangers lineup. Gallen's command was not sharp early in Game 1, and eventually finished with four walks, but he settled down and was able to limit the damage through five innings of work.
We should expect his success to continue early in this start if he can locate early on. The Rangers have racked up 101 at-bats against Gallen and have gotten the better of him by hitting .277. However, they've been extremely fortunate with those 28 hits. Texas has an average exit velocity of just 88.2 mph and an average launch angle of 7.3 against Gallen.
Add in the fact that they have also struck out 27.1 percent of the time, and it's easy to see a path for Gallen's success. So, look for both these starters to make quick work of these lineups, as they will each generate strikeouts while having the many ground balls find gloves in Game 5. I would play to -115.
Corey Seager o1.5 TBs
By D.J. James
Corey Seager has been on fire in the playoffs, and he will get the opportunity to face Zac Gallen, who has not been at his best in game four.
Adolis García getting injured in game three looked to be a massive blow to the Rangers, but Seager and company filled the gaps when needed and put up 11 runs of offense. Seager now leads the team in the playoffs with a 203 wRC+. He is slashing .306/.442/694 with a 15.6$ strikeout rate and 18.2% walk rate.
Meanwhile, Gallen is finally seeing the negative regression many have been expecting all season. He has a 5.27 ERA over 27 1/3 innings pitched in five starts. He has walk 13 batters and only has struck out 18, which plays into Seager’s hands. In addition, Gallen posted a 26% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate in the season, so the entirety of the Texas lineup is seeing the ball well when he throws. Paired with that, he had a 9.2% Barrel Rate, 91.5 MPH Average Exit Velocity and 46.2% Hard Hit Rate. With a slightly below average groundball rate, these numbers screamed regression at the ending of the regular season.
Finally, Arizona does have four arms in relief under a 4.00 xFIP. However, they have four above a 10% walk rate. With that being the case, Seager should have many chances to go over his total base total. Take it from 1.5 (-120) to -145.
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