With the World Series knotted at one game apiece, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks will square off at Chase Field tonight for Game 3 of the Fall Classic.
Brandon Pfaadt and Max Scherzer will face off in an awesome young vs. old; rookie vs. vet showdown, in what has already become one of the most random but genuinely fun World Series in recent memory.
I'm looking at one key way to fade the combined starting duo despite the fun pitching matchup storyline-wise for today's World Series prop bets.
World Series Game 3 Player Props
Yes, Run First Inning (-110)
One of the most fun bets baseball bettors can make is also one of the best ways to approach Rangers-Diamondbacks Game 3. Both Scherzer and Pfaadt will face still tests waiting for them in the very first inning.
For Pfaadt, who will take the mound first, he will likely face Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Evan Carter with Adolis Garcia and Mitch Garver waiting if needed. Pfaadt is a four-pitch pitcher, but his fastball-slider combo fills about 85 percent of his pitches. On the Rangers roster, four of their top five batters against right-handed fastball and sliders reside in that group above, with Adolis Garcia being the lone batter not elite at this split in particular. Unrelated, does anyone know how that guy has been hitting this postseason?
Seager is particularly dangerous, in particular, with a .451 xwOBA that ranked fourth among all qualified hitters in this split. However, Pfaadt will have no place to hide is he pitches around Seager, as noted by the strength of the top of this order against his pitch mix.
For Scherzer, the story is much the same. Although he is typically a five-pitch pitcher, this postseason, he has thrown either a fastball, curveball, or slider 86 percent of the time. The three best Dback hitters against that mix: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Gabriel Moreno, aka the 1-2-3 hitters for Arizona. Now, some of this is naturally due to teams putting their best hitters at the top of the lineup, but the split is notably clean for both teams against both pitchers on Monday night, making the YRFI not only a fun bet on Monday night, but a smart one.
Pick: Yes, Run First Inning (-110)
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