ALCS Game 6 on Sunday night features the Houston Astros hosting the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park in Houston.
The Astros are favored on the moneyline at -126, while the Rangers are underdogs at +126.
The Astros are looking to advance to the World Series. The Rangers are hoping to push this series to a seventh game, which would take place on Monday evening.
Nathan Eovaldi starts for Texas and Framber Valdez takes the mound for Houston in a rematch of Game 2, which the Rangers won.
Here are our staff's best bets and Rangers vs Astros picks for ALCS Game 6 on Sunday, October 22nd.
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Rangers vs Astros Game 6 Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +108 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -126 |
Nathan Eovaldi Over 15.5 Outs Recorded
+113 at Caesars
By D.J. James
Nathan Eovaldi has been solid as a rock for the Texas Rangers in the playoffs. He has really looked like himself, compared to some concerns from his forearm injury after the All-Star break.
In three playoff games, he has 24 strikeouts with only one walk over 19 2/3 innings. He has also thrown at least six innings in each appearance, including Game 2 against these Astros.
Like his opponent, Framber Valdez, Eovaldi will give up some hard contact. However, his 51.5% groundball rate is top-notch and will keep the Astros in check in this game.
The Texas bullpen has been a weak spot all season, including in these playoffs despite the Rangers' deep run. With the Astros up 3-2 in the series, it is obviously do-or-die for the Rangers. Eovaldi has been a horse and could go deep yet again and I expect manager Bruce Bochy to ride him for as long as he remains effective.
That being the case, there's plenty of value on Eovaldi's outs recorded prop at 15.5 and I would play it up to 17. I think he completes six innings in this must-win game.
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Rangers F5 ML
+110 at FanDuel
Houston has a clear bullpen advantage. The Astros boast a 2.19 ERA and a 113 Stuff+ rating during this playoff run, while Texas checks in at 4.12 and 105. The Rangers have been the worst bullpen in these playoffs by Stuff+, FIP (5.31) and strikeout minus walk rate (6.7%).
That played to the Astros' advantage in the monumental Game 5, with de-facto closer Jose Leclerc allowing a single to Yanier Diaz and walking Jon Singleton to get to Altuve, who ranks second all-time in postseason home runs. Talk about a disaster.
With Saturday’s day off, both bullpens should be mostly rested and available in Game 6.
But I expect Framber Valdez to continue struggling in a tough matchup, and I expect Nathan Eovaldi to continue shoving under the brightest of lights and in the toughest of situations. He’s just better under pressure.
And let’s not forget that the Rangers are crushing the ball at a similar clip to the Astros. Texas is the only lineup with as many barrels as Houston this postseason (34), and the Rangers boast the higher walk rate (10% to 8.4%).
So, with all this in mind, I’m taking Texas in the first half.
I suspect Texas jumps on Valdez early while Nasty Nate shoves. The Rangers' bats should come out hot following an embarrassing loss and with their season on the line.
We’re getting tremendous value on that line at plus money, too. Texas should probably be F5 favorites in Game 6.
Unfortunately for Rangers fans, you can’t trust their back-end pitching depth. I’m avoiding that mess altogether in this wager, but I would bet the Rangers on the F5 ML down to -110.
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Framber Valdez Over 4.5 Strikeouts
-120 at bet365
By Doug Ziefel
This number is almost insultingly low for Framber Valdez. Yes, he had an absolute clunker of an outing earlier in this series where he did not make it out of the third inning.
However, he still managed to strike out five Rangers in that horrid outing. His eclipsing that number extended his streak of doing so to six straight starts.
If he can get over this number in a bad outing, we shouldn't have any reason to doubt he will not do so again, especially since he should be counted on to bounce back here.
To put the value of this number into perspective, Valdez has gone over this total in 79 percent of his starts this season. That gives us staggering implied odds of -376 that he will go over it again here.
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