Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Rangers vs Astros Game 6?
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Series Moneyline Corner
Philadelphia re-opened around -700 (87.5% implied) to win the NLCS with a 3-2 lead. You can find as high as +500 (16.7% implied) on Arizona. Wait for -550 (84.6% implied) on the Phillies or +777 (11.4% implied) on the Diamondbacks to fire at the pennant price or series line before Game 6.
Houston is currently as low as -450 to win the ALCS with a 3-2 lead, while you can get as high as +380 on Texas. As a result, I don't see value on either side of the ALCS price; I'd need -360 to back the Astros or +465 to back the Rangers on the series line before Game 6.
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Game 6
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +108 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -126 |
Nathan Eovaldi vs. Framber Valdez (full projections here)
Game 6 of the ALCS is a rematch of Game 2 at the same venue. And we have very recent betting market data surrounding these teams with this exact pitching matchup.
Houston closed as -125 consensus favorites (55.6% implied), with Texas as +105 underdogs (48.8% implied) for Game 2. And the total closed at a flat 8.5, -110 on either side. The Game 6 line is very similar, with Houston sitting between -120 to -126 as of writing with Texas as low as +100 and as high as +111 if you shop around.
I set the Astros as -103 favorites for the first five innings (F5) and -108 favorites for the full game last Monday. Still, I have continued to upgrade Nathan Eovaldi throughout the playoffs and now make Texas slight (projected -105) F5 favorites, with Houston at -105 for the full game.
Bet Texas in the first half (F5) of Game 6 at +103 (49.2%) or better. I would need closer to +115 to bet the Rangers on the full-game moneyline.
After three quality playoff outings (combined 19 2/3 IP, 16 H, 5 R, 1 BB, 24 K), there's no doubt that Eovaldi is back closer to his peak form and has put his injury-riddled second half behind him.
Although Eovaldi's velocity, pitch modeling metrics and results all tanked in the second half — after a long IL stint for forearm tightness — he looks back to full health in the playoffs and increased his average fastball velocity by another half tick in Game 2 (to 95.6 mph) after sitting at 95.1 — in line with his season average — in the wild card and divisional rounds.
Eovaldi posted a 34% called-strike plus whiff (CSW%) rate against the Astros, 30% against the Orioles, and 32% against the Rays. Only five out of 44 qualified starters (Spencer Strider, Blake Snell, Charlie Morton, Zach Eflin and Pablo Lopez) posted a CSW% north of 30% for the season.
I do remain concerned about Eovaldi's career numbers against current Astros hitters, who own a .971 OPS against the Houston native across 166 plate appearances (6.8% K-BB% vs .13.3% career for Eovaldi). Jose Altuve (1.078 OPS, 5 HR in 31 plate appearances) and Yordan Alvarez (8-for-11, 1.987 OPS) are responsible for most of that damage.
However, Eovaldi fed the Astros a heavy dose of splitters and curveballs in Game 2 (59% combined; 45.3% on the season) while pulling back on his four-seamer (25% vs. 37.2% on the season).
That's an intelligent approach, particularly against Altuve, Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, who had a combined -3 run value against splitters this season. Splitters are also the lone weakness in pitch arsenal metrics for both Alvarez and Altuve.
Framber Valdez got ambushed early in Game 2, which was slightly surprising. Valdez had held current Rangers hitters to a .675 OPS across 205 regular season plate appearances, although his command (9.8% K-BB%; 14.5% career) has been spotty.
Valdez's groundball rate dipped this season to 54% — the lowest mark of his career (62.9% average) — causing a substantial increase in both his hard contact and home run rates (0.86 HR/9 vs. 0.49 in 2022).
Teams have had an easier time elevating the ball against him, and he hasn't had a clean outing since mid-September.
Valdez mainly mixes a sinker and curveball to righties while saving his cutter for lefties. Corey Seager excels against that sinker/cutter mix and could be an attractive bet in a left-on-left matchup (138 wRC+ in 2023).
Marcus Semien posted strong results against fastballs and curveballs and is a very logical prop target, given his history against Valdez (11-for-33 career and 2-for-2 in Game 2).
Semien's Over 1.5 total bases prop closed at +100 consensus in Game 2; you can find +105 in several places. Seager's prop (+115) is less juicy than what was available for Game 2 (+130); bet Semien and pass on Seager at those prices.
Pitcher usage is a bit more difficult to predict in any elimination game, especially after an off day.
Eovadi's strikeout prop closed at 4.5 (-110/-120) consensus and his outs recorded prop at 14.5 (-160/+120) for Game 2. Those props are 4.5 (+105/-135) and 15.5 (+110/-155) for Game 6.
Valdez's K prop closed 4.5 (-130/+100), and his outs recorded prop at 15.5 (+110/-15) for Game 2; those lines are 4.5 (-125/-105) and 14.5 (-135/-105) for Sunday.
Among those four lines, I would poke the Over on Eovaldi's K prop if you can get plus money.
Sides and Totals for Sunday, October 22
- Texas Rangers F5 (+110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +103)
Prop Bets for Sunday, October 22
- Nathan Eovaldi, Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105, 0.1u) at BetMGM (bet to +100)
- Marcus Semein, Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to +100)
