Rangers vs. Diamondbacks Game 3 Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 9 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +138 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-106 | 9 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -166 |
Just when you start to doubt these Diamondbacks, the Snakes have bitten back. They beat the Brewers as underdogs, took down the Dodgers in a big upset, and then fought back to beat the Phillies when nobody thought they could.
After losing Game 1 in devastating fashion by blowing a two-run lead in the bottom of the ninth, Arizona bounced back for a runaway 9-1 win in Game 2 to even the series.
Now the series shifts to Arizona. Normally, that would be an advantage for the home team. However, the Rangers have been road warriors this postseason. Texas has been perfect on the road, going 8-0 in away games through the first three series.
Texas Rangers
We know the moment won’t be too big for the 39-year-old Max Scherzer. A three-time Cy Young Award winner and 2019 World Series Champion, Scherzer can handle this game mentally. The question is if he can hold up physically.
After missing the first month of the season, Scherzer was back on the injured list for the last month of the year with a muscle strain in his shoulder. He returned to make two starts during the ALCS, struggling in each outing. Scherzer pitched just 6 2/3 innings across his two starts, allowing seven earned runs with three walks and a hit batter. He gave up a home run in each game and has a 9.45 ERA.
This season, as a whole, was a step back from the elite form we have typically seen from Scherzer. His 3.77 ERA with New York and Texas is his highest mark since 2011. Most of Scherzer’s metrics saw a drop this season. It was the first year his K/9 rate dropped below 10.0 since 2011, falling to 8.10. His walk rate was also the worst of his career. Scherzer will likely only face this Arizona lineup twice through the order, if he makes it that long.
Texas has been crushing the ball at the plate all season and that has continued throughout the playoffs. The Rangers finished the regular season ranked fourth in wRC+ and third in wOBA. They combine patience at the plate (fifth in BB%) with power (third in home runs).
The story of this postseason has been the breakout of Adolis Garcia. He has hit eight home runs this playoffs, including the walk-off bomb in Game 1 of this series. He has 22 RBIs, which is the most by any player in postseason history. Garcia has brought the fireworks, but former World Series MVP Corey Seager and rookie Evan Carter are both seeing the ball great right now and have been hit machines for the Rangers.
The biggest concern for the Texas offense has been the struggles of Marcus Semien. The Rangers really need him to get going at the top of their order.
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Arizona Diamondbacks
You would think it would be the multiple-time Cy Young Award winner that would provide the most confidence in this matchup, but Brandon Pfaadt has earned some faith with his recent performances. Pfaadt made his Major League debut on May 3 and posted a 5.72 ERA in his rookie season.
However, when you look under the hood, Pfaadt had an xERA more than a full run lower at 4.61. That indicates he was likely due for positive regression and that is what we have seen this postseason. Pfaadt only got stronger as the season went on. He had a 9.82 ERA in the first half of the season and lowered that to 4.22 in the second half.
Everything turned around for him during a stint back down in Triple-A in July. Pfaadt adjusted his setup to start his windup on the first-base side of the rubber instead of the third-base side. This change has improved his control and really helped his sweeper generate more swings and misses as it starts in the zone before diving outside to right-handed batters.
Through four playoff starts, Pfaadt has a 2.70 ERA, allowing just five total runs over 16 2/3 innings. The most impressive part of his performances has been his swing-and-miss stuff. Pfaadt has generated 22 strikeouts. His 33% strikeout rate this postseason is up from the 22.3% rate he had during the regular season.
https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1716978684316225737?s=20
Arizona’s offense was viewed as mediocre this season. They ranked just 18th in wRC+ during the regular season and were 15th in scoring. Their 166 home runs were just 22nd in the league. But as cliché as it sounds, the playoffs are a new season. And this has looked like a different team.
It’s hard to quantity “clutch” hitting but that is what the Diamondbacks have done. They have come up with the big hits in the right moments. Arizona has hit 20 home runs this postseason and they are hitting .267 with a .726 OPS with runners in scoring position.
Speaking of clutch, Ketel Marte is the hottest hitter on the planet right now. He has 21 hits and just set a postseason record with a hit in his 18th straight postseason game. Marte is batting .333 this postseason and he and Corbin Carroll are a lethal one-two punch at the top of this order.
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
I think the name value with a future Hall of Famer in Max Scherzer on the mound has made Texas a tad overvalued in this spot. He has taken a step back this season and has been knocked around this postseason. Houston had more runs than strikeouts against Scherzer.
Arizona has won all of Pfaadt’s starts this postseason. His stuff is nasty, and he has found success against hitters from both sides of the plate. Pfaadt has a 20.6% swinging strike rate this postseason. He excels with his fastball and sweeper combo against right-handed batters and then really ups his changeup usage against lefties. His sweeper has a 34% whiff rate.
My favorite thing about Pfaadt is how angry he gets every time Torey Lovullo takes him out of the game. He wants the ball in his hand with the game on the line, and the moment will not be too big for the 25-year-old pitching with a ton of confidence.
Lovullo has also made all of the right decisions with his pitcher usage this postseason. Behind Pfaadt, the Diamondbacks have a bullpen advantage over Texas. Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel, and Paul Sewald have been nearly unhittable this postseason outside of Sewald’s one mistake to Garcia in Game 1.
Texas has explosive power and the ability to put up runs in a hurry with their longball, but the Snakes have been able to slowly suffocate their opponents with contact and speed. Just like Arizona did in the regular season, they have gotten their running game going with 21 stolen bases through 14 postseason games. They have already swiped five bags through the first two games of this series.
The Rangers lit up Pfaadt for seven runs in his MLB debut, ruining the memory of the day his dream came true. But, he is a totally different pitcher right now. Since that game, he has completely changed his setup, moving to the other side of the rubber, and added a sinker to his arsenal.
I am buying Pfaadt’s current form and am backing him to hand Texas their first road loss of the postseason.
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