Pirates vs. Mets Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 8.5 -118 / -104 | +1.5 -200 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-118 | 8.5 -118 / -104 | -1.5 +164 |
Both the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets have fallen apart since the early part of the season. On Wednesday afternoon, Johan Oviedo will start for Pittsburgh, and Tylor Megill will pitch for New York.
Oviedo has vastly improved and has been stellar in the second half of the season. Conversely, Megill has been awful and has allowed 10 earned runs over 10 August innings.
Neither team has been particularly spectacular at the dish, but since Oviedo is the better starter, expect the Pirates to come away with this victory.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oviedo now ranks in the top half of MLB in Average Exit Velocity. His Barrel Rate is 8.2% with a Hard-Hit Rate of 39.5%. His second-half ERA is 3.50 (36 innings) and his WHIP is just 1.00.
Those numbers show much more than his overall 4.42 ERA and 4.53 xERA.
Johan Oviedo's 2Ks in the 4th. pic.twitter.com/nXoowlTczN
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 2, 2023
The Pirates have fared much better than the Mets against righties this month. Pittsburgh has a 100 wRC+, which is about league average. The Pirates walk rate it 10.4% and their OPS is .742, which is respectable.
They also have six bats above a .330 xwOBA, giving them a small edge over the Mets, especially with Megill toeing the opposing rubber. Since New York hasn't fared well in relief, the Pirates should also hit in the late innings.
Pittsburgh's relievers have a 4.23 xFIP with a 9.3% walk rate and a 70.2% LOB percentage this month.
The Pirates have a massive bullpen advantage over New York, so if Oviedo struggles, he'll have reasonable backups.
New York Mets
Megill has a 5.64 ERA against a 6.38 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is over 90 mph and he also has a 9.4% Barrel Rate and a 42.9% Hard-Hit Rate. His xwOBA is .380, his walk rate is over 10% and his strikeout rate is below 18%.
In other words, nothing has gone well this season.
The Mets have a 10.5% walk rate, a .637 OPS and a 85 wRC+ off of righties in August. Those underwhelming numbers explain why the Mets have struggled so much.
New York's bullpen has also struggled. The Mets relievers have a 5.06 xFIP with a 10.6% walk rate, which is horrid. A terrible bullpen following up a shaky starter isn't a recipe for success.
Pirates vs. Mets
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Mets have struggled so much lately that it's hard to see why they are favored, especially with Megill starting.
Oviedo has been solid in the second half and is worth backing against New York.
Since Pittsburgh also holds the bullpen advantage, there is no reason to go against the Pirates. Bet the Pirates at +114, and play them to -115. They should be small favorites.
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