In Game 3, we went 2-1 on our prop bets cashing on Ketel Marte and Ranger Suarez. Marte went 3-for-5 and his walk-off single gave the Diamondbacks a 2-1 victory. Aside from Marte, the starting pitchers were the story in the third matchup of this NLCS.
As expected, Suarez proved that his line of 2.5 strikeouts was far too low. He went 5 1/3 innings and punched out seven Diamondbacks for the second time this year. However, he was outdone by Brandon Pfaadt, whom we faded. Pfaadt allowed only two of the four hits we needed, while striking out nine and stymying the hot Phillies bats. If you parlayed Suarez for seven strikeouts and Pfaadt for eight, you are likely still on cloud nine.
In Game 4, Cristopher Sanchez will start for the Phillies. Like Suarez, his strikeout line is at 2.5, and we may be able to take advantage once again. Additionally, I will be backing Marte again, as well as another hot hitter in Trea Turner.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Game 4 Player Props
Cristopher Sanchez
Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-165)
The Phillies' starting pitching has been outstanding this postseason. Thanks to Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez, the Phillies haven't needed a No. 4 starter in the postseason until tonight. In the regular season, that role was filled by Cristopher Sanchez, but he is no slouch himself.
In 19 appearances (18 starts), Sanchez had a 3.44 ERA, 3.77 xERA, and 96 strikeouts across 99 1/3 innings. In his 18 starts, he went over this line in 16 of them, averaging 5.2 strikeouts per start. Sanchez punched out 10 in two of his final three regular season starts against the Braves and the Mets.
Now, because he hasn't pitched since September 30, and he hasn't started since September 24, the question is how long he will go in this game. He does not have an outs recorded line listed, but he averaged a little over five innings per start in the regular season. Four to five innings would be my expectation, and that should be enough for him to get three strikeouts, if not more.
Wheeler, Nola, and Suarez each recorded seven strikeouts in the first three games of this series. Sanchez's alternate lines are not available as of this writing, but I would be interested in up to seven strikeouts. Props.cash projects +910 odds for Sanchez to record seven strikeouts.
Pick: Cristopher Sanchez Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-165)
Trea Turner + Ketel Marte
One Hit Parlay (-131)
Trea Turner entered Game 3 hitting .500 this postseason. He likely will not be pleased about going 1-for-4 and lowering his average to .471, but he did extend his hitting streak to eight games this postseason and 12 games overall. The Diamondbacks are using Joe Mantiply as an opener for Game 4, which will be just fine with Turner.
He is 3-for-4 with a RBI against Mantiply in his career. The veteran lefty posted a 4.62 ERA in the regular season. The Phillies also scored three runs off him in Game 1. Turner may take care of his hit in the first inning off Mantiply, but if not, I like his chances against the Diamondbacks bullpen as well.
Ketel Marte is also on a 12-game hitting streak to begin his postseason career. It is the third-longest streak to begin a postseason career in MLB history. Marte is now hitting .371 this postseason. In addition to his streak, I backed Marte yesterday because he was at home and facing a left-hander. The same conditions apply against Sanchez, against whom he is 1-for-1 in his career.
Among players still active in the postseason, Turner and Marte rank first and third in batting average. By combining them for a hit, we get solid odds for a parlay. However, they also have 14 extra base hits combined this postseason. It is +272 on FanDuel if you want to parlay Turner and Marte for two total bases each.
Pick: Trea Turner / Ketel Marte One Hit Parlay (-131)
