Phillies vs. Brewers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-146 | 9 -115 / -105 | -1.5 +114 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+124 | 9 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -137 |
Aaron Nola and the Phillies will look to bounce-back from an ugly collapse in Friday's series opener. Nola has pitched well recently, including a 3.68 ERA in August. He will take on struggling righty Colin Rea, who owns an ERA of 5.11 across 100 and 1/3 innings this season.
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola will look to build upon a steady run of recent play and head into the postseason in top form. Nola has pitched to an ERA of 4.10 in 48 innings of work since the All-Star break, with a WHIP of 1.14. In those eight starts his xFIP has averaged 3.49, and brought his season long clip down to 3.74.
Nola has pitched to a Stuff+ rating of 101, and a Location+ mark of 107 this season. His curveball continues to hold an excellent rating (117), and owns an xSLG rate of .364. The Brewers have struggled with curveballs this season; their -4.1 pitch value versus the curveball ranks eighth worst.
The Phillies offense has been in incredible form of late, and is getting significant contributions from up and down the lineup. They have hit to a wRC+ of 142 over the last 30 days, and a 161 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber's return to dominance has been a key to that success. Each owns an OPS above .1000 over the last 10 games.
Kyle Schwarber has barreled nine balls out of his last 100 swings. He has clearly shaken out of an ugly start to the season, and is setting up to be a potential x-factor down the stretch after a disappointing season. Since last season 90 of his 147 hits versus right-handed pitching have been of the extra base variety.
Milwaukee Brewers
Colin Rea has struggled to a 6.75 ERA since the All-Star break, with a WHIP of 1.45 across 20 innings. His single game xFIP marks have remained consistently around 4.50, and therefore he is likely due to run better on BABIP than he has of late. He owns a Stuff+ of 88 this season, with a Location+ of 105.
Left-handed batters have slugged .511 versus Rea in 2023. He has struck out just 18.7% of lefties faced this season.
Rea has also pitched to notably worse results at American Family Field, as he owns a 5.68 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 50 and 2/3 innings of work.
Phillies vs. Brewers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Aaron Nola has been in strong form of late and offers a considerable pitching edge over Colin Rea. Offensively the Phillies have been incredible recently, and a key part of their improved lineup depth has returned to form thanks to the improvement of Turner and Schwarber. I'm willing to buy into the turnaround from each continuing, and the Phillies lineup should continue to mash as a result.
The Phillies are priced at -150 to win the first five innings, and that number is a play for me with Nola on the mound. Both of Turner and Schwarber's props are enticing as well, but considering Rea's results versus left-handed batters, the most value lies with Schwarber to record over 1.5 total bases at +120.
