Game 1s of the Divisional Series kick off on Saturday, with the crown jewel arguably being the Philadelphia Phillies taking on the Atlanta Braves with first pitch at 6:07 p.m. ET.
The starting pitching matchup sees Ranger Suárez taking on Spencer Strider, and while that's at least one big name, I'll be looking for runs aplenty in this game.
Both Suárez and Strider struggled in the second half (Strider with a 4.39 ERA second half, up from 3.44 first half; Suarez with a 4.57 ERA second half, up from 3.77 first half).
The wind is going to be blowing out at Truist Park, and with the Braves, in particular, in their historically good split, all four of the props here fit a similar game script (and could be put together for a tasty same game parlay).
Phillies vs. Braves Game 1 Props
Here are the top four hitters against left-handed fastballs, curveballs, and changeups (which make up 87.8 percent of Suarez's pitch mix), per Baseball Savant's xwOBA in 2023:
Aaron Judge, Sean Murphy, Mike Trout, Orlando Arcia.
Not bad company for these two Braves hitters, who demolished lefties as a whole this season, but particularly those who looked a lot like Suárez.
This is an Atlanta lineup that notoriously (and historically) runs deep, and posted a league-best 131 wRC+ against southpaws this season. Add in the weather conditions, and this one could get out of hand, with all parts of the lineup doing the damage.
Neither of these two ended the season scorching hot, but both have had a chance to rest up over the past week and should relish this ideal pitching matchup to get out of the gates hot in what is a revenge series for the Braves.
Pick: Arcia and Murphy Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+120 / +110 at DraftKings)
This bet works on a couple levels. The first and most obvious is that I think this is a nightmare matchup for Suárez. He actually managed to pitch well against Atlanta in his lone start against them this season, but if we look at the far greater sample of how this Atlanta team does against a pitcher with Suárez's profile, it's really bad news for him.
Once again using Baseball Savant's search tool, it shows the Braves having a .380 xwOBA as a team against left-handed fastballs, curveballs, and changeups, easily the top mark in all of baseball, 14 points above the Yankees in second, and 29 points above the third-place Mariners. That's the same gap as between the Mariners and the 19th-place Tigers.
The other way this bet works, though, is that in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the Phillies have two of the best work horses in all of baseball, meaning the bullpen should have their eyes on the Suárez starts in this series as the days they will be leaned on most.
I also think there is a very good chance the Phillies get to Spencer Strider as well, meaning even if Suárez gives up a chunk of early runs, the Phillies may still be in this game and likely to pull Suarez even earlier.
Pick: Suarez Under 13.5 Outs Recorded (129 at Caesars)
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This is the fun one I'm throwing in at the end if I want to make my SGP pop a little.
Interestingly enough, Acuña actually was better versus lefties than righties this season, and while his xwOBA against Suárez's pitch mix is impressive (.459), hilariously enough that's actually lower than in all settings (.463).
Now, Acuña did manage to leave the yard in 22.3 percent of games this season (+400 is 20 percent implied), but the run-scoring environment does typically drop in the postseason.
However, righties managed 12 of the 13 homers off Suárez this season, and if I realllllly want to get crazy, I even think Acuña to homer in his first plate appearance (+1300, DraftKings) is a super fun bet that isn't egregiously EV-.
Pick: Acuña to Homer (+400 at DraftKings)
