Phillies vs. Braves odds have the home team as a favorite to even the series.
For the first time all season, the Atlanta Braves were shut out at home on Saturday. The Phillies took Game 1 of the NLDS, 3-0, relying on great baserunning (five stolen bases), terrific defense and a Bryce Harper home run.
Philadelphia got a solid start from Ranger Suarez, followed by a lights-out bullpen performance from six relievers. Spencer Strider was great for Atlanta, but the high-flying Atlanta offense wasn’t able to give him any run support.
After a day off, the Braves will look to even the series in Game 2 at Truist Park. Let’s break it down with a Phillies vs. Braves pick for Game 2 of the NLDS.
Phillies vs. Braves Game 2 Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -112o / -108u | +136 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -112o / -108u | -162 |
Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler continues to be dominant in the postseason. He got the start in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round and allowed just one run in 6 2/3 innings. Wheeler struck out eight batters while giving up just five hits and no walks as the Phillies cruised to a win over the Marlins.
That comes as no surprise for a pitcher who has established himself as one of the game’s best. Wheeler finished the regular season with a 3.61 ERA in 32 starts. He posted a 3.21 xERA and established a new career-low 5% walk rate.
What makes Wheeler so difficult to hit is his deep pitch mix. He throws five different pitches at least 10% of the time, led by his fastball which has been dominant. Opponents are hitting just .199 against this Wheeler fastball that averages 95.8 mph. In his start in the Wild Card Round, Wheeler’s fastball topped 97 mph 19 times and peaked at 98.6.
Since the infamous Trea Turner standing ovation, Philadelphia’s offense has been firing on all cylinders. That night galvanized this roster, who have all fed off that energy. Not to mention it finally got one of the most talented hitters in baseball going. Since Aug. 4, the Phillies rank fourth in the league in wRC+ and third in wOBA.
Turner is batting .337 with 16 home runs since that day. But he's not the only one who received a boost. Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos all have wOBAs over .350 since early August.
Atlanta Braves
The key to the Braves' World Series hopes might come down to one finger of Max Fried. Atlanta’s No. 2 pitcher has not pitched since Sept. 21 due to a blister issue on his throwing hand. He has been pitching in intrasquad games with a Band Aid to try and let his finger heal. Fried battled injuries for a lot of this season, making just 14 starts.
When out there, Fried has looked terrific. He went 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA and 2.75 xERA and looked like the Fried we have become used to seeing. His strikeout rate was up to 25.7% in his limited starts, and it was clear that any injuries did not affect his velocity at all.
Fried is elite at limiting hard contact. He ranks in the top 10% of the league in average exit velocity allowed and brilliantly mixes a fastball, curveball and changeup to produce weak contact. While this will be Fried’s 2023 postseason debut, he was lights-out in the World Series clincher in 2021. He had two excellent starts during the 2021 postseason but did mix in two duds as well.
Atlanta’s offense was shut down in Game 1, but don’t expect the bats to remain quiet for much longer. The Braves' offense was incredible from start to finish, leading the league in wOBA and wRC+. They hit for both power and average and have the most dangerous lineup in baseball.
Ronald Acuña Jr. is going to run away with the MVP award after leading the league in hits and stolen bases, while his teammate Matt Olson led the way with 54 home runs. Acuña went hitless in Game 1 and will be difficult to keep off the scoresheet again.
Phillies vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
Wheeler has been terrific in the postseason, with a 2.55 ERA across seven career starts. He has pitched into the sixth inning in six of his seven career postseason starts and has racked up 41 strikeouts in 42 1/3 innings.
He was lights-out during the Wild Card Round and has established himself as the ace of this team and one of baseball’s most reliable pitchers. Wheeler has had success against the Braves this season, winning two of his three starts and holding Atlanta to one run or fewer in those two wins. He tallied 21 strikeouts in 19 innings against the Braves.
Wheeler isn’t the only one who has proven to be a dominant force in the playoffs. Harper is locked in at the plate right now, batting .375 with a 1.333 OPS through three games. Over the past two postseasons he has a .352 average with seven home runs and 14 RBIs across 20 games. He and Bryson Stott have led the way for Philadelphia early this October.
As good as Fried has looked this season, the blister on his pitching hand is a big concern for me. If that isn’t 100% healed, it is only going to continue to get worse as the game goes on and could make it difficult for him to throw.
I am willing to bet on that uncertainty. We can be pretty confident we are going to get a strong performance from Wheeler. We just don’t know for sure about Fried. He has not pitched in a game in 17 days, and if he is still having issues with that blister, he could have his outing cut short. Fried faced the Phillies in the playoffs last year and allowed six runs on eight hits, getting chased in the fourth inning.
Behind Wheeler is perhaps the deepest bullpen in the league. Cristopher Sanchez and Michael Lorenzen moved to the bullpen to join Craig Kimbrel, Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Dominguez, Matt Strahm and breakout rookie sensation Orion Kerkering. With the day off on Sunday, the full arsenal should be available for Rob Thomson when needed.
I know it’s unimaginable to see the Braves fall down 0-2 at home, but this is a good price on the Phillies with their ace on the mound, given the uncertainty surrounding Fried.
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