Phillies vs. Braves odds have Atlanta as a significant favorite behind its ace against rival Philadelphia.
We're in luck this week as the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves meet in the NLDS for a second consecutive year. Bryce Harper led the Phillies in a thrilling Game 1 victory last year that was dominated by both offenses. Might a similar story unfold on Saturday, or will Ranger Suárez and Spencer Strider come to play?
Let's get into a Phillies vs. Braves pick for Game 1 of the NLDS.
Phillies vs. Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | +176 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -111 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | -210 |
Philadelphia Phillies
After stumbling to the finish line with a 15-13 record in September, the Phillies reminded the world just how dangerous they were with a sweep of the Miami Marlins in the Wild Card Round. They scored 11 runs in two games against a stout pitching staff, slashing .273/.314/.485 to finish the round as the best of the four offenses represented in the National League.
It came after a season which saw the Phillies finish 10th in wRC+ and sixth in Isolated Power. Philly still sat just outside the bottom 10 in strikeout rate and didn't walk nearly enough to excuse its impatience at the dish, but in the second half we saw a different approach which led the Phillies to a 9.8% walk rate, sixth-best in the league.
The opposite was true for Saturday's starter, Ranger Suárez. The left-hander saw his walk rate deteriorate throughout the season, finishing just a shade under 9% for a second straight season. The good news? His ground ball rate was stable throughout the campaign, and his expected batting average steadily improved over the summer, which culminated in a tidy .249 mark in the month of September.
Suárez isn't the most imposing pitcher in the world, but he's done a decent enough job of throwing to contact this season. While that's never an easy task against the Braves, he can at least claim to have spun six innings of one-run ball versus Atlanta in June. Most impressive, that start came at home where he finished with a 5.45 ERA. Suárez has enjoyed life on the road, pitching to a 2.75 ERA in 59 innings away from Citizens Bank Park.
Atlanta Braves
On the other side of this matchup we have perhaps the most imposing pitcher in baseball in Spencer Strider. The flame-thrower led all qualified pitchers with a 36.8% strikeout rate this season, which was nearly five points better than the next-best man. His fastball rides in at 97.3 mph on average and looks unhittable at times, and he couples that with a slider, which has generated a ridiculous 55.6% whiff rate this year.
Strider, like most strikeout artists, hasn't exactly been a master at inducing soft contact. He's nearly impossible to score on when he's taking the bat out of his opponents' hands, as he's done for most of his career, but he's been susceptible to the longball with a poor 8% barrel rate, which has helped opponents go yard 22 times this season, putting him in a tie for the 19th-most in baseball.
That's really the only thing holding Strider back. He's pitched to a tidy .202 xBA, which sits in the top 8% of the league, and as a result his 3.04 xERA is one of the best around. Because of his issues with the gopher ball, he did finish the season with a 3.86 ERA and has looked incapable of winning games at times despite his insane strikeout numbers.
We haven't seen the Braves hit in five days, which is far too long to go without watching the best offense in baseball do its thing. Atlanta led the league in slugging by nearly 40 points and topped all teams with a .282 batting average. The Braves' strikeout rate was one of the five-lowest in baseball, and while they didn't walk a ton at just 8.6%, there was really no reason to be patient with the way they swung the bat.
Phillies vs. Braves
Betting Pick & Prediction
While we only have the one start to look at as it pertains to Suárez matching up with the Braves, it went about as well as it could have. In that game, he pitched to a .256 xBA and 40% ground ball rate, which are decent numbers when you're dealing to a lineup this dangerous, and his seven strikeouts were very impressive. He opted to throw his four-seamer just 24.2% of the time, decreasing his sinker usage roughly five points at 23.2%. It was the outing where he mixed his pitches the most evenly, which I think was very much on purpose.
The Braves are good against just about every pitch, but the one which has given them a little bit of trouble is the changeup, against which they ranked 10th in the league. Suárez had great success with that pitch and his curveball, getting seven outs with them without surrendering a hit.
The left-hander has the arsenal to keep the Braves honest at the plate, and while he's struggled at times with walks, the Braves aren't exactly a team which is very passive. When you factor in his success on the road and his excellent 1.23 ERA in last year's postseason, I think there's plenty of reason to get behind Suárez.
While Strider has pitched to a robust 2.42 ERA against Philadelphia this year, this is theoretically a matchup the Phillies can win. They have grown more patient at the plate in recent months, which could earn them a few extra baserunners against a pitcher who has struggled with walks. On top of that, while the Phillies have struck out a ton, they have more power than almost any team in the league and are capable of landing a big blow in this game. They've also been one of the best teams in baseball at hitting the slider for the past couple of seasons, and they will see a lot of them from Strider.
While I'm a big fan of the under here, there is a great deal of value in the Phillies on the moneyline through five innings. Suarez should keep them in the game long enough for one of their big boppers to come up with a game-breaking extra-base hit.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
