Padres vs. Dodgers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 8.5 104 / -118 | +1.5 -182 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-130 | 8.5 -104 / -118 | -1.5 +150 |
Blake Snell (2.52 ERA, 161 IP) will continue his push for the NL Cy Young on Wednesday in a tough matchup versus a red-hot Dodgers lineup.
Los Angeles is 48-25 at Dodger Stadium this season, but is only slight favorites tonight with Ryan Pepiot (0.86 ERA, 21 IP) on the mound.
San Diego Padres
After a strong result on Friday in Houston, Snell has now allowed three or less earned runs in 20 consecutive starts. He's pitched to an ERA of 2.00 in 63 innings of work since the All-Star break. His xwOBA has actually steadily risen over that stretch to its current league-average mark, and he's allowed a WHIP of 1.30.
Versus Houston, Snell was hard-hit 66.7% of the time, which was the fifth straight start he had a hard-hit rate greater than 40%. He threw to a 4.59 xFIP after owning a marks of 4.26 and 4.02 in his previous two starts.
Throughout Snell's career, his underlying results have often disagreed with his dominant ERA and perhaps don't tell an entirely fair story of his level. However, he's testing that idea more than ever right now.
Snell's 85.9% strand rate has been the greatest key to his stellar ERA this season. His career-average mark sits at 77.9%.
Snell owns a Stuff+ mark of 107 this season and a Location+ of 95.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers' high-powered offense features it's "A" lineup versus lefties — barring any surprising absences. They've hit t0 a 126 wRC+ over the last 30 days and have scored 5.44 runs per game at Dodger Stadium this season.
They have hit to equal splits versus RHP and LHP to this point, with a wRC+ of 118.
The Dodgers faced off against Snell on August 5 and were able to manage three earned runs in his five innings of work.
Padres vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
As outlined above, Snell has run with some highly favorable luck recently, leading to unsustainable success. That point was clear last time out against Houston, and it seems that his form has dipped without the results catching up yet.
Betting Snell to allow over 2.5 earned runs sets up as a great way to fade him in this matchup. The Padres' pitching staff is in shambles and leaving Snell in until the 100-pitch mark makes sense. They let him throw 103 in a 6-2 ball game versus the Astros, and it seems unlikely he'll be hooked early unless things fall apart.
In a matchup versus a dominant Dodgers offense, the Padres would love to see Snell pitch fairly deep. +125 is a great price for him to allow over 2.5 earned runs.
