Last night, we enjoyed a 2-1 evening to secure profit. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ruined the sweep by going 0-for-5, despite reaching base twice on errors. However, J.D. Martinez (+360) and Xander Bogaerts (+625) both went deep.
Today, we'll begin bright and early in Atlanta, where the Phillies and Braves will be completing their three-game series. Aaron Nola will get the start for the Phillies as they look to go for a series win. Caesars might've given us a gift with his strikeout line.
The Guardians' AL Central chances are on life support, and it doesn't help matters that they've lost the first two games in Kansas City. Bobby Witt Jr. may help his Royals complete the sweep today.
The Padres nearly threw a combined no-hitter last night after seven brilliant innings from Blake Snell. However, they never led until Bogaerts' walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth. We're going right back to Bogaerts today, this time for the afternoon finale.
MLB Player Props For Wednesday, September 20
Aaron Nola Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Nola hasn't enjoyed his best season, and September has been even worse for him. In three September starts, Nola has an 8.56 ERA and has failed to get out of the fifth inning in any of them.
In his last start against the Cardinals, Nola had a season-low one strikeout.
Facing the best offense in baseball doesn't present the best bounce back opportunity. DraftKings has his earned runs line at 2.5 (-150) and juiced to the over.
Yet, I'm going the other direction here.
Nola's last start snapped a streak of 12 consecutive outings with five strikeouts. Nola also struck out nine in seven innings against the Cardinals on August 27, so getting another look at him so quickly might've contributed to his low output.
However, this season, Nola is averaging over a strikeout per inning (186 in 181 innings).
Nola has hit that mark against the Braves this season (12 strikeouts in 12 innings) and has hit this line in both of his starts against them. Including the playoffs, Nola has punched out at least five in each of his last eight starts against the Braves over the last two seasons. In seven of those, he's struck out at least six.
Several Braves hitters have good numbers against Nola, so I'm not expecting a no-hitter today. But he did toss six scoreless innings of two-hit ball against the Braves on June 22.
I'm laying the juice here because this line is one strikeout too low. It's at 5.5 on FanDuel at +104 (still playable) and 4.5 at -175 on DraftKings, so I'm pivoting to Caesars here.
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Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Heading into the All-Star break, Witt was having a productive season, but since, he's taken his game to another level.
Since the All-Star break, Witt has hit 15 of his 29 home runs in less than 32 games and in over 100 less at-bats. He's slashing .308/.347/.571 in that span, as well.
Witt was on the shortlist of my candidates for yesterday's column. He didn't get two total bases, so we didn't miss out on anything there. But he did have a hit and a run scored.
Witt has recorded a hit in seven of his last nine games while clearing this line in five of them.
He has another good matchup today against Lucas Giolito. Witt is 5-for-15 with a double, triple and home run against him. We'll take any of the three today.
Giolito is coming off of a dominant outing against Texas in his last start. However, he has a 6.17 ERA on the road and a 4.46 ERA in day games.
Kauffman Stadium is not the most favorable park for hitters, but don't tell that to Witt; he's hitting .292 at home, with 35 of his hits going for extra bases, including 18 home runs.
Witt's next home run will give him 30 (and a 30/30 season). However, even if he doesn't go deep, I like his chances of getting two total bases.
Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-155)
Bogaerts got a hit in his second at-bat last night, but he didn't clear this line until his home run. Bogaerts secured his fifth-straight multi-hit game. He made all of his recent trends look a little better in the process, as he's now hit this line in 13 of his last 16 games.
Bogaerts cashed this combo last night without any prior history against starter Ryan Feltner. However, he has an excellent matchup today against Chase Anderson.
Bogaerts is 6-for-12 (.500) with three doubles against Anderson in his career. Anderson has a 6.00 ERA this season, which increases to 8.16 on the road and 6.59 in day starts. Right-handed hitters are slashing .281 against him.
Here, I'm targeting Bogaerts' hits + runs + runs batted in line instead of his total bases line because he's batting leadoff with Ha-Seong Kim on the shelve.
Bogaerts has scored a run in each of his last three games. Last night, he drove himself in, but he's hitting in front of the other Padres' stars. Fernando Tatis Jr. had a double last night, but he led off an inning.
Bogaerts is hitting .294 at home and in day games this season. He's hitting .453 in September with 18 runs scored, four home runs and eight runs batted in.
Between Bogaerts' scorching hot September and a favorable matchup against Anderson, I like his chances of getting two hits + runs + runs batted.
