The prop bet sweep this week remains elusive, but we secured another winning night by finishing 2-1 yesterday. I have three more MLB player prop plays today focusing on the East divisions.
The Rays and Angels have split the first two games of their three-game series in Tampa. The Rays are heavily favored to take the series with Zach Eflin getting the ball. He might pile up the Ks in a Rays victory.
The Blue Jays have taken the first two games in the Bronx rather easily over the Yankees. However, tonight the Yankees are favored with Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole getting the start. Jose Berrios may turn in a quality start to counter him.
The Braves' comeback fell short yesterday as they lost 6-5 to the Phillies. Tonight, they are in Washington, D.C. to begin a four-game series against the Nationals. Matt Olson will look to extend his lead in the RBI race.
MLB Player Props For Thursday, September 21
Zach Eflin has enjoyed facing the Baltimore Orioles this season, as he has struck out eight in each of his last two starts against them. That includes his start against them last Friday. Eflin has now hit this line in three of his last five starts.
The start before that span came against the Angels and Eflin had just four in six innings. However, he was pulled after throwing just 74 pitches. With a 13-1 lead in an eventual 18-4 victory, there was no need for manager Kevin Cash to overextend him. The Angels remain an excellent matchup for strikeout props.
The Angels have the fourth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Over the last month — mostly without Shohei Ohtani — they have the highest strikeout rate against right-handers. They are 24th in wRC+ in that span as well.
Seven of the last 10 starters the Angels have faced have gone over their strikeout props. Of the misses, Miguel Diaz was an opener and Taj Bradley finished with six in five innings on Tuesday. Five of the seven who went over their lines had at least eight strikeouts, including Tarik Skubal, who we backed against these Angels last Friday.
Eflin should join that group today. However, if you want to lower him to six, you could take him to get six strikeouts combined with the Rays winning, at virtually the same odds on FanDuel.
Pick: Zach Eflin Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-116 at FanDuel)
Jose Berrios had a rough season in 2022, posting a 5.23 ERA and -0.5 WAR. He has bounced big in a big way this season, posting a 3.49 ERA and 2.5 WAR. Berrios has been pivotal to the Blue Jays' postseason push this season, especially in light of the Alek Manoah fiasco.
Even during his struggles, Berrios has always been an innings-eater for his team. He has thrown at least 190 innings in three of the last four 162-game seasons. With 178 innings this season and likely two starts remaining, he has a chance to get there again.
Berrios is averaging a shade under six innings per start this season, but that average is on the rise. Berrios has hit this line in five consecutive starts, including tossing seven innings in each of his last two starts. He also has hit this line in 10 of his last 15 starts and went 5 2/3 innings in two others.
Berrios last faced the Yankees on May 18 and allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings. The Yankees have scored just two runs in the first two games of this series, so he may be catching them at the right time. However, he has also pitched six innings in two recent starts where he allowed five runs.
As long as Berrios does not come out and get shelled in the first inning, he likely throws six innings and records 18 outs.
Pick: Jose Berrios Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-120 at DraftKings)
Just 73 players have driven in 71 runs this season. Then there's Matt Olson, who has knocked in a run in 71 games this season and leads the league with 131 total, 17 more than Pete Alonso. Olson drove in a run in each of his last two games against the Phillies. He also has hit this line in six of his last 10 and 10 of his last 15 games.
The Braves have a plethora of RBI candidates every night. Tonight, I am targeting Olson because left-handed bats have given Jake Irvin more trouble. Irvin has allowed 10 doubles, 14 home runs, 30 runs batted in and a .270/.356/.492 slash line to left-handed hitters. He also has a 5.40 ERA in night games compared to 2.79 in day games.
Olson has not faced the rookie yet this season, but he has hit 42 of his 52 home runs and has 102 runs batted in against right-handed pitchers this season. Olson is +250 to hit a long ball on FanDuel tonight. He is hitting .352 with nine home runs and 19 runs batted in this month. He has also has significantly cut down on his strikeouts with just 10 in 84 plate appearances.
The Braves usually have someone on base when Olson bats. Ronald Acuna Jr. can easily to get to third either via a steal or going first to third on a hit by Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley. With Olson putting the ball in play at a high rate, that means he can hit this line with a sacrifice fly or RBI groundout as well as a hit.
Pick: Matt Olson Over 0.5 RBI (+115 at DraftKings)
