It has been a tremendous regular season, and it coming to a close is a bittersweet feeling. Nontheless, we have a chance to end it on a high note by taking advantage of some massive edges in the player prop market on Sunday.
So for the final time this regular season, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Sunday, October 1.
MLB Props on Sunday, October 1st
The end of the 2023 season may be a welcome sign for Tanner Houck, as it's been filled with rocky outings and injuries. However, when he's been on the bump this season, he's given the Red Sox the length they need.
Houck has gone at least five innings in 14 of his 20 starts this season. That 70% hit rate gives us implied odds of -233 that he will eclipse that total again this afternoon.
Plus, it helps that he may have an intangible edge as he looks to finish the season strong while he gets to face a Baltimore lineup that has its eyes toward postseason play later this week.
Back Houck to end the year on a high note.
Pick: Houck Over 14.5 Outs -160 (DraftKings)
With the Mets' rotation in constant flux since deciding to pack it in back in July, Jose Butto has taken his opportunity to start at the big-league level and run with it. He's made four starts in September since being recalled and has only allowed more than two earned runs in one of them.
This afternoon he'll face a Phillies lineup that has already clinched a postseason berth and may be different from the one he saw in his last start.
While Butto did record five strikeouts in that outing, he only lasted four innings as the Phillies roughed him up. Seeing Butto for the second time in one week only helps the Philadelphia bats.
Butto is also due for some strikeout regression. If you factor in all eight of his appearances this season, his Strikeout Rate sits at just 22%.
If Butto struggles again, this under will be safe.
The flame-throwing Hunter Greene has had a roller coaster of a season ERA-wise, but Greene has consistently produced strikeouts.
Greene's Strikeout Rate of 30.9% is in the 92nd percentile of all qualified pitchers. He can dominate if he's on, and he will be given the chance to shine in this final game of the regular season.
While Greene does have a tough matchup this afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are 21st in Strikeout Rate, Greene has nearly been matchup-proof at this total.
Greene has gone over this total in 67% of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -203 that he will go over one more time today.
Our Action Labs projections love this over with a forecast of 6.9 strikeouts for Greene.
