Yesterday, we secured a winning day for the third consecutive day this week. Yet, we were also one Jose Berrios out away from a sweep.
We did cash on Matt Olson, who hit his 53rd home run (+250) and recorded his 132nd RBI for us. Olson has another great matchup tonight against Patrick Corbin. However, tonight I will be backing his teammate, Charlie Morton.
The Phillies stayed hot last night as they opened up their four-game series with a victory over the Mets. They have won five of their last seven games and are getting closer to securing homefield in the NL Wild Card Series. Bryce Harper had two hits in the win last night and he will look to stay tonight.
The Guardians are getting their ace, Shane Bieber, back tonight. However, it may be a little late as Minnesota's magic number to clinch the AL Central is down to one. Bieber may be in a for a rude welcome back facing the Orioles tonight.
MLB Player Prop Picks for Friday, September 22
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m, | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Braves vs. Nationals
Charlie Morton
Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105)
By Alex Hinton
The Braves have been a profitable team to back this season. While they have the best offense in baseball, we have had success backing their rotation as well. In the last week or so, we have hit on Bryce Elder's and Spencer Strider's K props. Tonight, I will be backing Charlie Morton.
On paper, the Nationals do not present the best matchup for strikeouts as they rank 29th in strikeout rate as a team. However, seven of the last 10 starters they have faced have gone over their strikeout props. Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff missed by one but he did get six against Washington last Sunday. Max Fried had seven in six innings last night as well.
Morton has hit this line in three of his last five starts, averaging 7.2 strikeouts in that span. He was also hooked on five in his last start against Miami. He cleared this line in both starts against the Nationals last season, punching out seven and nine batters. While Morton has not faced the Nationals this year, he has struck out six different Nationals hitters at least twice in his career. That includes Luis Garcia and Dominic Smith, whom Morton has struck out 11 times combined.
One benefit in this matchup is that the Nationals do not walk often, which could help Morton as he can sometimes struggle issuing free passes. If Morton can limit his walks tonight, that will keep his pitch count down and allow him to go deeper in this game. Six innings should be enough for Morton to get six strikeouts tonight.
Mets vs. Phillies
Bryce Harper
Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145)
By Alex Hinton
After a hot August, Bryce Harper began September stuck in a 0-for-19 slump. He is still hitting just .169 this month, but he is hitting .260 over his past 15 games. Harper has a hit in 10 of his last 15 games. He has scored a run in each of his last five games as well.
On Monday and Tuesday, Harper scored via home runs. His next home run will be his 20th and give him the ninth 20-home run season of his career. Harper is just 1-for-6 against tonight's starter, Tylor Megill, but I like him tonight for a reason. Left-handed hitters are slashing .303/.382/.465 with 10 doubles and nine home runs against Megill. The right-hander also has a 1.65 WHIP for the season and 7.09 ERA on the road.
I like Harper in this matchup, as he is also one of the league's most patient hitters. Harper has drawn 73 walks in just 119 games this season, including 17 this month. If he scores after he draws a walk, he can then clear this line with either a hit or run batted in. Harper has hit this line in 10 of his last 15 games and he is 2.4 hits + runs+ runs batted in over that span. I expect that trend to continue tonight.
Pick: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145)
Orioles vs. Guardians
Shane Bieber
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
By Alex Hinton
Over the last half decade, Shane Bieber has been one of the game's best strikeout artists. In each of his first five seasons in the big leagues, Bieber had a strikeout rate of 24% or better. He struck out a career-high 259 batters in 2019 and narrowly missed 200 again last year, finishing with 198. Five strikeouts is usually a piece of cake for Bieber.
Yet, he has struck out five batters in only seven of his 19 starts this season.
Bieber's fastball velocity is down (91 mph), he has a career-low 19.4% strikeout rate, and a career-high 46.3% hard hit rate. The Orioles hit Bieber hard back in May, when they tagged him for seven runs on eight hits in four innings. Bieber finished with four strikeouts in that start. In fact, Bieber has had exactly four strikeouts in nine of his starts this season.
Bieber may finish with four tonight as he will be making his first start since July 9. He will likely be on a pitch count, and his outs recorded line (14.5) indicates that the oddsmakers are expecting him to pitch five innings. Bieber has struggled to hit this line consistently when he was pitching seven and eight innings this season.
This line is -161 on Caesars and -142 on FanDuel, so we are getting good value here on DraftKings.
