Let's dive into my top MLB player prop bets for today's slate. We've got three prop bets we're targeting — all overs.
The Atlanta Braves are the first team to clinch a playoff berth this season. They will head to Philadelphia with a 15-game lead in the NL East over the Phillies. However, they still have plenty of motivation after the Phillies knocked them out of the NLDS last year. Michael Harris Jr. will look to help the Braves take game one of today’s doubleheader.
The Rangers have been in free fall of late, but they did right the ship with a series win over the A's over the weekend. They will head to Toronto for a four-game series with the Blue Jays that could make or break their season. Dane Dunning will start game one, but he will have his hands full with Bo Bichette.
The Mariners will pay close attention to that Rangers-Blue Jays game as they are a game back of the Blue Jays and a half-game up on the Rangers. Tonight, they will look to handle their own business as they begin a three-game series against the Angels. I have my eye on Julio Rodriguez against Reid Detmers in this one.
MLB Player Props For Monday, September 11
We have backed several Braves hitters this season and for good reason. They have the best offense in the MLB and average 5.8 runs per game. Part of that is the length of their lineup, including a hitter with a .291 batting average and nearly .800 OPS from the nine hole.
That would be Michael Harris II. Despite his production, the books offer nice odds for him because there are some games where he only gets three plate appearances, like yesterday. However, that has happened just twice in his past 10 games. He also has a hit in nine of those games, including two home runs and five runs batted in.
When Harris does bat ninth, he acts as a second leadoff hitter for the Braves. When he gets on, Ronald Acuña Jr., Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley and, occasionally, Matt Olson are behind him to drive him in. Harris has scored 64 runs this season with five of them coming in his past 10 games.
Though he hits for more power at night, Harris has a .328 batting average in day games this season. He is 3-for-4 with two home runs and three runs batted in against game one starter Taijuan Walker. He has hit this line in five of his past six games and six of his last 10 games. I expect these trends to continue tonight.
Pick: Michael Harris II Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120 at DraftKings)
Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both come into today's game with a ton of success against Dane Dunning. I considered a hit parlay here, and if you want to water them down from two bases to hits, feel free. However, I believe there is more value on Bichette tonight.
Bichette has been hitless in three of his past five games dating back to August because of an IL stint. However, in the other two games, he had two hits, including two doubles. Overall, he has a hit in 13 of his last 16 games with eight multi-hit games in that stretch.
Another multi-hit game could be in the cards for Bichette. He is 5-for-11 with a double and three home runs in his career against Dunning. At DraftKings, he is also +800 to hit a home run compared to just +480 on FanDuel. Those odds are certainly worth a sprinkle considering he has 18 home runs this season and four extra-base hits against Dunning in just 11 at-bats.
Dunning has had a solid season with a 3.88 ERA. However, in his last start he allowed nine earned runs and three home runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Houston Astros. We don't need an awful performance from Dunning tonight, but a first inning double or home run from Bichette would be nice.
Pick: Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115 at DraftKings)
While I like Bichette to go deep tonight, Julio Rodriguez may be an even better candidate. Rodriguez had a historic month of August, as he hit .429 with seven home runs and 30 runs batted in. He has come back to earth a bit average-wise (.244) in September, as he has had two consecutive hitless games last week. However, five of his 11 hits this month have been home runs.
Thanks to his power display, Rodriguez has hit this line in seven of his 10 past games. In that span, he also has four multi-hit games and one triple. Rodriguez's next home run will be his 30th, giving him both 30 home runs and stolen bases this season. It may come against Reid Detmers, against whom he is 1-for-3 with a home run and three walks.
Detmers has a 5.60 ERA on the road this season and has allowed seven hits or more in four of his past six starts. One of those starts came against Seattle when he allowed seven runs in four innings, including the home run to Rodriguez.
Just five of Rodriguez's home runs have come against left-handed pitchers, but he is hitting .320 against them. The matchup is there for Rodriguez to have two total bases, whether he gets there via a home run or another multi-hit game.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 at DraftKings)
