We have a stacked 15-game MLB slate on Friday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: You can combine up to five different player squares to pay out up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Friday's MLB slate for PrizePicks.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Julio Rodriguez Fantasy Score More Than 8.5
Mariners vs. Rays, 6:40 p.m. ET | George Kirby vs. Taj Bradley
Right-hander Taj Bradley takes the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays against the Seattle Mariners and he should be a good fade candidate.
Bradley was recalled as part of the September roster expansions, but his debut season prior to getting sent down did not go smoothly. Through 17 starts, the right-hander is 5-7 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as Bradley ranks in the 39th percentile or lower in xERA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%.
That brings us to Julio Rodriguez, who is putting together yet another tremendous campaign. Carrying Seattle's offense, Rodriguez owns a .280 BA, .487 SLG and .825 OPS with 27 homers and 36 stolen bases through 133 games.
His analytics are also, unsurprisingly, tremendous – ranking in the 81st percentile or higher in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. Rodriguez faced Bradley once earlier this year, going 2-3 with a double and a single.
Yandy Diaz Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
Mariners vs. Rays, 6:40 p.m. ET | George Kirby vs. Taj Bradley
We are also going to fade a couple of Tampa Bay hitters as right-hander George Kirby takes the mound for the Mariners.
It has been a strong sophomore year for Kirby, who is 10-9 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.05 WHIP through 26 starts. This success could continue against the Rays, a team he is 1-0 against through two career starts with a commanding 1.38 ERA and 0.62 WHIP.
The first Tampa Bay hitter to fade is Yandy Diaz.
There is no denying that Diaz is tremendous at the dish and is always a threat to reach base, but he has failed to do just that in each of his past two games as he stayed beneath this number. And, while he is 1-3 in his career against Kirby with a double, Diaz also possesses a mere .079 xBA, .092 xSLG and .073 xwOBA over that small sample size.
Finally, when facing right-handed pitching this year, Diaz's splits drop by roughly 5%.
Randy Arozarena Fantasy Score Less Than 7
Mariners vs. Rays, 6:40 p.m. ET | George Kirby vs. Taj Bradley
The other Rays hitter to fade is Randy Arozarena.
Failing to surpass this figure in three of his past five games, Arozarena is averaging just 5.2 fantasy points over that stretch. These below-average performances could continue against Kirby, a pitcher whom he is just 1-6 in his career against with one single and two strikeouts.
Like Diaz, Arozarena's performance drops against right-handed pitching as his splits dip by approximately 7% this year when doing so. Arozarena has struggled to get over this number for the past few months when facing catchers who are solid at preventing stolen bases, which applies to the above-average Cal Raleigh.
