Game 5 of the NLCS gets underway this evening as the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field.
Let's dive into my top MLB PrizePicks plays for Phillies-Diamondbacks tonight.
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Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Phillies vs. Diamondbacks Game 5.
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Kyle Schwarber Fantasy Score More Than 7
Right-hander Zac Gallen got shelled in Game 1, allowing five runs on eight hits through five innings en route to Arizona's 5-3 loss.
One of those runs came off a lead-off bomb from Kyle Schwarber. A true boom-or-bust hitter, Schwarber is either surpassing his fantasy score with one swing or not at all.
This trend applies to his history against Gallen as well, going 2-for-10 in his career against the right-hander. Those two hits? Home runs.
Gallen has struggled with the long ball, ranking in the 27th percentile in Barrel% and fifth percentile in Hard-Hit%. That could be a problem once again against Schwarber, who enters this contest in good form.
He has cleared this number in three of his past four games, averaging 18.3 fantasy points over that stretch. Unsurprisingly, Schwarber is 5-for-13 at the plate with four home runs across those four games.
Corbin Carroll Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
Meanwhile, we're going to fade a pair of Arizona hitters against right-hander Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler put together a strong campaign as he went 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. That success has continued in the postseason as he is 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA and 0.63 WHIP through three starts.
Regression should not be a concern with Wheeler, who ranks in the 83rd percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, Chase%, BB% and Barrel%.
The first Diamondbacks hitter to fade is Corbin Carroll, who has failed to surpass this figure in each of the four games of this series thus far. Over that stretch, Carroll owns a fade-worthy .067 BA, .067 SLG and .192 OPS and is averaging just 1.25 fantasy points per game.
Wheeler will be a tough matchup for Carroll to turn things around considering that he is just 1-for-8 against the right-hander in his career with a single.
Gabriel Moreno Fantasy Score Less Than 6.5
Like Carroll, Gabriel Moreno enters this matchup in poor form as he has failed to eclipse this number in three of the four games of this series, averaging six fantasy over that span. Also like Carroll, Moreno's track record against Wheeler is poor as he is hitless through five plate appearances.
This poor track record should not that surprising, given that Moreno's splits drop by approximately 27% in his career when facing right-handed pitching. His underlying metrics are also underwhelming, ranking in the 33rd percentile or lower in xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel% and Sweet-Spot%.
