The NLCS kicks off this evening as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 1. Let's dive into my top MLB PrizePicks plays for Diamondbacks-Phillies tonight.
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Here’s how I would approach a PrizePicks stack that focuses on Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Game 1.
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J.T. Realmuto Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Right-hander Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona and could be a good candidate to back on Monday.
Likely finishing just outside of the NL Cy Young race, Gallen produced a 17-9 record with a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through 34 starts this season. This success continued into the postseason, going 2-0 with 3.18 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
That brings us to J.T. Realmuto, who has remained beneath this number in half of his playoff games thus far. While we have seen a true 50/50 against this figure, he could be a good candidate to pick against when facing Gallen.
Through four career plate appearances against the right-hander, Realmuto is 0-for-3 with a walk. His underlying metrics over that small sample size are also poor, posting a .048 xBA, .050 xSLG and .206 xwOBA.
Situationally, this game presents a tough spot for the Phillies' catcher as his splits drop by roughly 14% this season when facing right-handed pitching and a whopping 65% when hitting at Citizens Bank Park.
Evan Longoria Less Than 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
We're also going to fade a pair of Arizona hitters against right-hander Zack Wheeler, who takes the mound for the Phillies.
Like Gallen, Wheeler put together a strong campaign as he went 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. Also like Gallen, Wheeler's success has continued into the postseason as he is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.69 WHIP through two starts.
Regression should not be a concern with Wheeler, who ranks in the 83rd percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, Chase%, BB% and Barrel%.
The first Diamondbacks hitter to fade is Evan Longoria, who has failed to surpass this figure in three of his five playoff games. Over that span, Longoria owns a mere .167 BA, .222 SLG and .422 OPS.
This tough stretch of hitting could continue against Wheeler, a pitcher whom Longoria possesses a .222 BA, .333 SLG and .236 wOBA against through nine career plate appearances. His splits also drop by approximately 5% when facing right-handed pitching this year and 18% when hitting on the road.
Geraldo Perdomo Less Than 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
In a play with some correlation, we're also going to fade a guy who hits directly behind Longoria in the batting order: Geraldo Perdomo.
Now could be a time to sell high on the switch hitter after he homered against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 3 of the NLDS. Prior to that outing, Perdomo failed to surpass this figure in six of his previous eight games.
Over that stretch (including the home run game), he owns a fade-worthy .087 BA, .217 SLG and .467 OPS. Like Longoria, Perdomo possesses a poor track record against Wheeler, going 1-for-7 with three strikeouts.
Wheeler has been mowing down lineups all postseason, and the bottom of Arizona's order shouldn't give him any issues either.
