Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can find my projections for every MLB game in the Action Network App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub (which you can bookmark).
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Phillies vs Diamondbacks Game 5?
Series Moneyline Corner
I set the Astros as 20% underdogs a few days ago with a two-game deficit in the ALCS, but now make them 80% favorites headed home to Houston, needing to win one out of their next two games to advance to the World Series for the fourth time in five years. Houston re-opened between -450 and -500 for the series after Game 5, with Texas sitting between +350 and +385. As a result, I don't see value on either side of the ALCS price; I'd need +465 (17.7'% implied) to back Texas at this stage.
The Phillies re-opened between -150 and -200 after blowing Game 4, with Arizona as low as +120 and as high as +170 to win the series. You can bet Arizona to win two of the final three games at +158 or better; that +170 price at Caesars may not last long. I don't plan on hedging off my Phillies futures with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola lined up for Games 5 and 6, but you can find an actionable price on the Diamondbacks.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Game 5
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8 -104o / -118u | -130 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8 -104o / -118u | +110 |
Zack Wheeler vs. Zac Gallen (full projections here)
Game 5 of the NLCS is a rematch of Game 1, albeit at a different venue. Still, we have very recent betting market data surrounding these teams and this exact pitching matchup.
We bet the Phillies' Game 1 opener at -144, and they closed as -166 consensus favorites (62.4% implied) with Arizona as +140 underdogs (41.7% implied). After adjusting for the home park, you would expect to find the Phillies, in the same pitching matchup, around -125, with the Diamondbacks around +105, for Game 5 at Chase Field.
Instead, the line seems a touch inflated toward the Phillies losing consecutive games in Phoenix, sitting at -135 to -140 at open with Arizona between +110 and +114. I set the Phillies as -165 favorites for Game 1 (62.3%) and made them -122 favorites (54.9% implied) for Game 5, and with the slight over-adjustment toward Arizona, I don't see value on either side of the Game 5 moneyline.
However, I would back Wheeler and bet the Phillies' F5 moneyline to -133; I projected that price at -143.
Wheeler remains the best starting pitcher left in the playoffs — and I might not take anyone else on the planet right now. With his Game 1 effort against Arizona, Wheeler lowered the record for the lowest WHIP (0.70) in MLB postseason history (minimum 40 IP) ahead of Mariano Rivera (0.76) and Kenley Jansen (0.80).
He posted an MLB-best 112 Pitching+ rating among starting pitchers in the second half. And Wheeler has increased his velocity and efficiency in the playoffs, with called-strike plus whiff rates (CSW%) of 37% against Arizona, 35% against Miami and 28% against Atlanta (27.5% this season).
Despite comparable underlying indicators, I view Wheeler (3.21 xERA, 3.54 xFIP, 22% K-BB%, 111 Pitching+) as at least a tier better than Gallen (4.19 xERA, 3.49 xFIP, 20.4% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+).
I'd look to bet Over props for Wheeler. Especially with Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman and Craig Kimbrel working on consecutive days and few reliable relievers available in the Phillies bullpen.
He can also cut down on Arizona's running game — as the Phillies have done all series. Arizona has only had one stolen base attempt, which came when Craig Kimbrel wasn't paying attention. Since arriving in Philadelphia, Wheeler has allowed only 13 steals on 23 attempts (56%). And Since 2018, J.T. Realmuto has twice as many Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) via stolen base prevention (18) as any other catcher.
Bryce Harper presents the best matchup against Gallen. We bet him to walk in Game 1, and after Gallen gave up a home run to Harper on the first pitch he threw him, he didn't give Harper another pitch in the zone for the remainder of the night — a theme throughout this series. We have bet Harper to walk in every game of the NLCS, and he's walked five times already. Considering how Arizona has pitched him, I can't believe we continue to get favorable prices in this market. Harper's walk prop is another must-bet for Saturday.
I would also look to bet Over props for Gallen after Arizona's bullpen day on Friday. Kevin Ginkel, Paul Sewald, Andrew Saalfrank, and Ryan Thompson have each worked on consecutive days for Arizona.
I set the total at 8.3 runs and would bet an Over 8 to -102 pregame, but would prefer to wait for a live or 4.5 or 5 as this game progresses closer to these overworked bullpens.
Sides and Totals for Saturday, October 21
- Philadelphia Phillies F5 (-115, 0.5u) at bet365 (bet to -133)
Prop Bets for Saturday, October 21
- Bryce Harper, Over 0.5 Walks (-115, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to -140)
- Zac Gallen, Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-110, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to 16, -110)
- Zack Wheeler, Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135, 0.1u) at DraftKings (bet to 6.5, -110)
- Zack Wheeler, Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-115, 0.2u) at DraftKings (bet to 16, -110)
