MLB Best Bets Today | Predictions, Odds, Picks for Orioles vs Rangers (Tuesday, October 10)

Today's MLB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	4:07 p.m. ET	Under 7.5 (+115)
	8:03 p.m. ET	Rangers Over 4.5 Runs (-110)
	8:03 p.m. ET	Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
	8:03 p.m. ET	Rangers Moneyline (-135)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Tuesday, October 10

4:07 p.m. ET ET

FOX

Under 7.5 (+115)

By Tony Sartori

We're catching plus money on the under (7.5) because these two lineups are no strangers to run production. However, I think Cristian Javier and Sonny Gray are up to the task.

It was a bit of a tumultuous season for Javier, who went 10-5 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. However, the right-hander ended the season in great form as he posted a 3.05 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over his final four starts.

On the other side, Gray is coming off one of the best seasons of his career. Through 32 starts, the right-hander posted a 2.79 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.

Not only did he end the regular season in great form, but he also tossed five scoreless innings against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round. Gray is 3-2 with a 1.37 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over his past eight starts and allowed more than one earned run just once over that span.

It's also important to note that there were seven or fewer runs scored in five of those eight outings.

Houston obviously boasts a strong lineup, but Gray has held his own against them throughout his career with a 3.03 ERA over 12 appearances. And in those 12 appearances, seven or fewer runs were scored seven times.

Pick: Under 7.5 | Play to +100

Bet the Under Instantly With QuickSlip

Tuesday, October 10

8:03 p.m. ET ET

FOX

Rangers Over 4.5 Runs (-110)

By D.J. James

The Texas Rangers have a shot to close out the ALDS at home in Arlington. The Baltimore Orioles will be throwing Dean Kremer, who may have had favorable results this season, but his 4.12 ERA against a 4.96 xERA suggests regression may hit. His Average Exit Velocity was 89.7 mph and he had a 40.3% hard-hit rate. He also only struck out 21.4% of batters and walked 7.5%.

Since August 1, the Rangers have hammered righties. They had a 113 wRC+ and a .788 OPS with a 10.2% walk rate and a 23.5% strikeout rate. In that time frame, they also have eight hitters with a xwOBA over .320.

The Orioles bullpen also hasn't been the same since Félix Bautista went down with an injury. From August 1 to the end of the regular season, Baltimore's bullpen had a 4.09 xFIP with a 22.3% strikeout rate and a 7.1% walk rate. The Orioles do have several arms with a xFIP below 4.00, but the middle relievers are cause for concern if Kremer gets knocked around early.

And I expect that to happen.

Texas is hitting its stride and should continue to provide fireworks. Bet the Rangers team total over from 4.5 (-110) to 5 (-110).

Pick: Rangers Over 4.5 Runs | Play to 5

Bet Texas Instantly With QuickSlip

Tuesday, October 10

8:03 p.m. ET ET

FOX

Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)

By Anthony Dabbundo

Nathan Eovaldi dominated in the second game of the Wild Card series and looked to be considerably healthier than he was at the tail end of the regular season. Eovaldi's fastball velocity ticked up closer to normal in his final start of the regular season, and that carried over into his dominance of the Rays.

His average fastball velocity in his final regular season start was 94.8 mph, which was more than a full mph harder than in four of his five outings since returning from injury in early September. He managed six strikeouts in his final outing of the regular season and then had eight in 6 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay.

However, based on prices from last week's wild card game and today's moneyline, it appears the market is slow to upgrade Eovaldi. However, instead of playing Texas, I'm targeting Eovaldi's strikeout prop.

The Rangers should give Eovaldi a considerably longer leash in this start given that they have a 2-0 series lead. That should push him to pitch at least five innings and if Eovaldi pitches five innings, his strikeout prop shouldn't be over 4.5 at plus money. I'd bet anything +100 or better.

Pick: Nathan Eovaldi Over 4.5 Strikeouts | Play to +100

Back Eovaldi Instantly With QuickSlip

Tuesday, October 10

8:03 p.m. ET ET

FOX

Rangers Moneyline -135

By Brad Cunningham

If you're looking for a starting pitcher to take the mound to save your season, Dean Kremer is probably not the guy.

Kremer vastly overperformed his expected metrics for most of the season as he posted a 4.12 ERA with a 4.96 xERA. His main problem is that he can't get lefties out. He's allowing an extremely high .349 wOBA to lefties this season, but has been solid against righties (.290 wOBA).

The Rangers have the ability to platoon seven left-handed bats into their lineup and were one of the best lineups against right-handed pitching all season.

Baltimore's offense came out flat in the first two games of this series, despite being in their best split advantage. Baltimore had a .330 wOBA against lefties versus a .318 wOBA against righties this season.

Nathan Eovaldi had been pitching pretty terrible since coming back from his forearm injury, but he was awesome in the wild card round against the Rays (6 2/3 innings, 1 run, 8 strikeouts). If he pitches anywhere near that level again tonight, the Rangers are going to have massive advantages in both the lineup and starting pitching matchup.

I have the Rangers projected at -166, so I love the value on them at -135.

Pick: Rangers Moneyline (-135)

Bet the Rangers Instantly With QuickSlip