The Rangers booked the first spot in the LCS on Tuesday night with their 7-1 demolition of the Orioles to complete the sweep, leaving three series still to be decided in the LDS round of the MLB playoffs.
All three series are in action on Wednesday, and two of them could end today as the Dodgers and Twins both look to fight off elimination.
One of the real challenges of projecting the MLB playoffs from a betting perspective is trying to figure out managerial plans for bullpen management. Pitcher outs recorded totals and strikeout props are heavily driven by usage, and the series scenario and bullpen management play huge roles in determining how long a starter might pitch.
Here's how I'm betting the pitchers in today's LDS triple-header.
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 9 -108o / -112u | +102 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 9 -108o / -112u | -120 |
Bryce Elder (RHP) vs. Aaron Nola (RHP)
Bryce Elder was announced as the Braves starter for Game 3 on Wednesday morning, but I'm quite skeptical of how long he's going to pitch in this game.
Elder had a 5.11 ERA in the second half, his Stuff+ metrics are extremely mediocre and he walked 29 batters in 68 innings post All-Star break. He pitched against the Phillies on Sept. 20 and had five walks, four earned runs allowed and couldn't finish the fourth inning after allowing two home runs to Nick Castellanos.
Given how long it took them to announce Elder, it's a good bet that A.J. Smith-Shawver will factor heavily into the pitching plans. The Phillies have never seen Smith-Shawver, a rookie, and his fastball-heavy approach is very different than Elder's.
Elder and Smith-Shawver should be expected to work as a potential piggyback to get to middle relief in what is essentially a bullpen game.
Bet: Bryce Elder Under 11.5 Pitching Outs (+100 at Caesars)
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For the Phillies, Aaron Nola will make a playoff start at home against the Braves in Game 3 of the NLDS in a 1-1 series for the second consecutive year.
Nola has been up and down all year long with a 4.46 regular season ERA. He's especially struggled with the home run ball and with runners on base, which don't sound like a great recipe in the playoffs against a historically good Atlanta lineup.
But Nola may have found something in his last three starts. He tweaked his delivery and upped his changeup usage and has now delivered three consecutive quality starts against the Braves, Pirates and Marlins to end the regular season and begin the playoffs.
Despite this improvement of late, it's clear Rob Thomson is going to aggressively manage Nola in this outing. The Phillies had bullpen action in the game against the Marlins in the middle innings, but Nola pitched his way out of jams and managed to finish seven innings.
There's been bullpen action as early as the fourth inning in September Nola starts, at the first sign of trouble. That's a sign of how Thomson was looking to manage in the playoffs.
Nola is a good bet to go twice through the order, and then he's probably pulled at the first sign of trouble third time through. Whether that's Ronald Acuña Jr. at the top of the lineup or Austin Riley — who has crushed him this year — will depend on the game situation. Nola's out props would be a bet for me at 15.5, but at 14.5 juiced to the over, it's a pass.
If you project Nola for 20 hitters, a pretty aggressive projection, and then use his season long 5.7% walk rate, that gets you to 1.2 projected walks. With that number, Nola will go under 1.5 strikeouts 66% of the time, which is -194 implied.
Bet: Aaron Nola Under 1.5 Walks (-160 at BetMGM)
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| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 8 -115o / -105u | +108 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8 -115o / -105u | -126 |
José Urquidy (RHP) vs. Joe Ryan (RHP)
José Urquidy gets the start for Houston with J.P. France likely waiting behind him as part of a piggyback situation as well.
Urquidy has only pitched more than 4 2/3 innings once in the last two calendar months. He had one of his best starts of the season in the win against Arizona in the final weekend of the year when he threw six shutout innings with two hits allowed and three strikeouts.
I'd look to play the under for Urquidy in principle because of the waiting France and his recent lack of usage. However, Houston is up 2-1 in the series and isn't on the brink of elimination. We could see Urquidy get pushed to throw into the fourth inning as a result of this.
He definitely won't see any Twins hitter three times, but 18 hitters is enough for him to get over the very low 10.5 pitching outs total.
Urquidy does have a career-low strikeout rate and career-high walk rate despite a lot of bullpen innings this year, so I do lean to his under 3.5 strikeouts, but that's the only bet I'd consider for his prop line.
Bet: Pass (Lean Under 3.5 Ks at-103 at BetRivers)
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The Twins will turn to Joe Ryan, who stumbled in the second half of the season but still has excellent stuff to go through a very difficult Houston lineup. Ryan has a home run problem, but he's also elite at generating swings and misses in the zone — a major key to being successful against the Astros.
Because of the elimination game status, the Twins will most certainly have a short leash for Ryan if he doesn't have his best stuff on Thursday.
One thing is for certain: the Twins cannot let Yordan Alvarez beat them in this game. Alvarez has four home runs and three doubles already in the first three games of the series, so I'd be shocked if Alvarez gets pitches to hit on Thursday. His chances of a walk are undervalued and while the market now has Alvarez -105 to walk, it hasn't adjusted Ryan's walk props as a result of that.
If Ryan pitches around Alvarez, his walk prop should not be over 1.5 at +130. That's too low of a projection. Ryan doesn't walk many batters but if he's trying to avoid homers, his walks are likely to jump a bit.
Bet: Joe Ryan Over 1.5 Walks (+130 at BetMGM)
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -126 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -138 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | +108 |
Lance Lynn (RHP) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP)
Lance Lynn has been a workhorse pitcher his entire MLB career, but he's likely to be in a very different role on Wednesday night as the Dodgers look to fight off elimination down 2-0 to Arizona. Lynn's pitching profile has dramatically changed since he joined the Dodgers at the deadline.
His zone contact rate — which was one of the best in MLB in Chicago — has risen dramatically. Lynn is allowing a lot more contact since joining the Dodgers as his swinging strike rate dipped from 13.9% in Chicago to 10.9% now. He's traded a bunch of whiffs and hard contact allowed for a more pitch-to-contact profile.
Lynn has been in the zone way less as an attempt to cut down on the homers he's allowed. His hard-hit rate allowed with the White Sox was 36.3% and it's dropped to 24.9% since joining the Dodgers.
The Dodgers will pull him if he gets truly smoked, but I can't envision a Dave Roberts pitching plan that doesn't include at least four innings or twice through the lineup (18 hitters) for Lynn on Wednesday night.
Neither Bobby Miller nor Clayton Kershaw could finish the second inning and the elimination situation has driven the line down, but this is still an average Diamondbacks lineup overall.
Bet: Lance Lynn Over 11.5 Outs Recorded (-102 at FanDuel)
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Brandon Pfaadt's first playoff start in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round didn't go as he planned. Pfaadt allowed seven hits, a key home run and couldn't get out of the third inning in his first playoff start.
Even though Pfaadt struggled, the stuff still looked solid. Pfaadt managed four strikeouts in 10 outs in that outing with 18 batters faced. He clearly had some nerves on the road, but pitching at home should help him keep the ball in the yard and pitching with the lead in the series could help him be freer.
It's a good bet Pfaadt will face no more than 18 hitters again, but the Diamondbacks' 2-0 lead also could mean that Torey Lovullo is more willing to push Pfaadt deeper into the game to save the bullpen more. I'd only look to Pfaadt overs.
Most of the market is stuck on Pfaadt at 12.5 with juice to the under. There's a rogue over 11.5 +108 at FanDuel that is a bit short for me. He finishes with exactly 12 outs a good amount of the time here.
Bet: Brandon Pfaadt Over 11.5 Outs Recorded (+108 at FanDuel)
